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NFL · 2026 Week 1

2026 Week 1 Half PPR FLEX Rankings

Final pre-kickoff board · published September 9, 2026, 18:40 UTC · first kickoff September 10, 2026, 00:20 UTC

Half PPR, 1QB · 296 players projected · updated September 9, 2026

See how these rankings performed

View current weekly rankings

Week 1 starts from preseason projections and draft position, with current availability and market signals layered in.

How these rankings work

How these rankings are built

We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.

We then update those expectations for Week 1 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.

We then simulate the week 4,000 times and rank players by the projected fantasy points those simulations produce.

This board is priced in Half PPR. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.

FLEX combines RB, WR, TE — the positions a flex seat can start — into one ranking. Quarterbacks are not eligible and are not on it.

What the percentages mean

For every simulation, we rank every flex-eligible player against the others and record where each one finishes.

Top 3
how often he finishes among the top three at RB, WR, TE combined
Top 12
how often he finishes in the top 12
Top 24
how often he finishes in the top 24

A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished among the top 12 RB/WR/TE in 58% of the simulated weeks.

What stood out in Week 1

296 FLEX-eligible players ranked for Week 1. Jahmyr Gibbs leads at 18.9 projected points.

Tier break

1.7 projected points separate RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs from RB2 Bijan Robinson.

Biggest differences from the draft market

Ahead

  • Rhamondre StevensonRB14Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline +11 vs. RB25
  • Breece HallRB11Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline +5 vs. RB16

Behind

  • Jeremiyah LoveRB19Our projection is lower than the outside forecast -6 vs. RB13
  • Rashee RiceWR15Our projection is lower than the outside forecast -4 vs. WR11
  • Kenneth Walker IIIRB16Our projection is lower than the outside forecast -4 vs. RB12
2026 Week 1 Half PPR FLEX Rankings -- Half PPR scoring: projected fantasy points and the share of simulated weeks finishing top 3, top 12 and top 24 among FLEX-eligible players. From our own statistical and market model, not analyst consensus.
# Pos Player Pos rank Proj
1 RB Jahmyr GibbsDET RB1 18.9
2 RB Bijan RobinsonATL RB2 17.2
3 WR Puka NacuaLAR WR1 15.9
4 WR Ja'Marr ChaseCINQQuestionable WR2 15.7
5 RB Jonathan TaylorIND RB3 15.3
6 RB Christian McCaffreySF RB4 15.2
7 WR Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA WR3 14.6
8 WR Amon-Ra St. BrownDET WR4 14.3
9 RB De'Von AchaneMIA RB5 14.2
10 RB Saquon BarkleyPHI RB6 13.6
11 RB James CookBUF RB7 13.4
12 WR CeeDee LambDAL WR5 13.1
13 RB Omarion HamptonLAC RB8 12.5
14 WR Justin JeffersonMIN WR6 12.4
15 RB Derrick HenryBAL RB9 12.2
16 RB Chase BrownCIN RB10 11.8
17 WR Nico CollinsHOU WR7 11.4
18 WR Drake LondonATL WR8 11.2
19 RB Breece HallNYJQQuestionable RB11 11.0
20 TE Brock BowersLV TE1 10.9
21 TE Trey McBrideARI TE2 10.9
22 WR A.J. BrownNE WR9 10.7
23 WR George PickensDAL WR10 10.6
24 RB Ashton JeantyLVQQuestionable RB12 10.6
25 WR DeVonta SmithPHI WR11 10.4
26 WR Chris OlaveNO WR12 10.3
27 RB Javonte WilliamsDAL RB13 10.2
28 WR Tetairoa McMillanCAR WR13 9.8
29 WR Malik NabersNYGQQuestionable WR14 9.5
30 RB Rhamondre StevensonNE RB14 9.5
31 RB Kyren WilliamsLAR RB15 9.4
32 WR Rashee RiceKC WR15 9.3
33 WR Garrett WilsonNYJ WR16 9.2
34 RB Kenneth Walker IIIKC RB16 9.1
35 RB Travis EtienneNO RB17 9.0
36 TE Colston LovelandCHI TE3 9.0
37 WR Emeka EgbukaTBQQuestionable WR17 8.9
38 WR Zay FlowersBALQQuestionable WR18 8.9
39 RB Cam SkatteboNYG RB18 8.9
40 WR Davante AdamsLAR WR19 8.8
41 RB Jeremiyah LoveARIQQuestionable RB19 8.7
42 RB Quinshon JudkinsCLE RB20 8.5
43 WR Tee HigginsCINQQuestionable WR20 8.5
44 RB Jadarian PriceSEA RB21 8.5
45 WR Ladd McConkeyLAC WR21 8.4
46 TE Tyler WarrenINDQQuestionable TE4 8.4
47 RB Bucky IrvingTB RB22 8.2
48 RB David MontgomeryHOU RB23 8.1
49 RB Bhayshul TutenJAXQQuestionable RB24 8.0
50 RB Jaylen WarrenPIT RB25 7.8
51 WR Luther Burden IIICHIQQuestionable WR22 7.6
52 TE Kyle PittsATL TE5 7.6
53 RB Tony PollardTEN RB26 7.6
54 RB MarShawn LloydGB RB27 7.5
55 RB Rico DowdlePIT RB28 7.5
56 WR Rome OdunzeCHIQQuestionable WR23 7.4
57 WR DJ MooreBUF WR24 7.1
58 WR DK MetcalfPITQQuestionable WR25 7.0
59 WR Jameson WilliamsDET WR26 6.9
60 WR Terry McLaurinWAS WR27 6.9
61 RB D'Andre SwiftCHIQQuestionable RB29 6.8
62 WR Mike EvansSF WR28 6.7
63 TE Sam LaPortaDETQQuestionable TE6 6.6
64 TE Harold Fannin Jr.CLE TE7 6.6
65 TE George KittleSFQQuestionable TE8 6.6
66 WR Jaylen WaddleDEN WR29 6.4
67 RB Kenny GainwellTB RB30 6.4
68 RB Aaron JonesMIN RB31 6.3
69 TE Dallas GoedertPHI TE9 6.3
70 WR Carnell TateTENQQuestionable WR30 6.3
71 WR Alec PierceIND WR31 6.2
72 WR Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI WR32 6.2
73 WR Matthew GoldenGB WR33 6.0
74 WR Michael WilsonARI WR34 6.0
75 WR Wan'Dale RobinsonTENQQuestionable WR35 5.9
76 WR Jordan AddisonMIN WR36 5.9
77 WR Parker WashingtonJAX WR37 5.9
78 TE Mark AndrewsBAL TE10 5.9
79 WR Jayden ReedGB WR38 5.9
80 WR Quentin JohnstonLAC WR39 5.9
81 WR Christian WatsonGB WR40 5.9
82 WR Brian Thomas Jr.JAX WR41 5.9
83 WR Michael PittmanPITQQuestionable WR42 5.8
84 TE Jake FergusonDAL TE11 5.7
85 WR Jakobi MeyersJAXQQuestionable WR43 5.7
86 WR Stefon DiggsWAS WR44 5.7
87 TE Tucker KraftGBQQuestionable TE12 5.7
88 RB Rachaad WhiteWASQQuestionable RB32 5.6
89 RB Tyjae SpearsTEN RB33 5.6
90 WR Courtland SuttonDEN WR45 5.5
91 WR Jalen CokerCAR WR46 5.5
92 WR Chris Godwin Jr.TB WR47 5.5
93 WR De'Zhaun StriblingSF WR48 5.4
94 TE Isaiah LikelyNYG TE13 5.4
95 WR Tre TuckerLV WR49 5.4
96 WR Devaughn VeleNO WR50 5.3
97 RB Jonathon BrooksCARQQuestionable RB34 5.3
98 RB Chuba HubbardCARQQuestionable RB35 5.3
99 RB Blake CorumLAR RB36 5.3
100 WR Khalil ShakirBUFQQuestionable WR51 5.3
101 TE Dalton KincaidBUF TE14 5.2
102 RB Jacory Croskey-MerrittWASQQuestionable RB37 5.2
103 TE Travis KelceKC TE15 5.1
104 TE Hunter HenryNE TE16 5.0
105 WR Rashid ShaheedSEA WR52 5.0
106 RB Kyle MonangaiCHIQQuestionable RB38 4.8
107 WR KC ConcepcionCLE WR53 4.8
108 RB Jordan MasonMIN RB39 4.8
109 RB J.K. DobbinsDEN RB40 4.8
110 RB Woody MarksHOU RB41 4.8
111 WR Josh DownsINDQQuestionable WR54 4.7
112 TE T.J. HockensonMIN TE17 4.7
113 WR Romeo DoubsNE WR55 4.7
114 TE Brenton StrangeJAX TE18 4.6
115 WR Deebo Samuel Sr.SF WR56 4.6
116 TE Dalton SchultzHOU TE19 4.6
117 WR Makai LemonPHI WR57 4.5
118 TE Juwan JohnsonNO TE20 4.4
119 WR Xavier WorthyKC WR58 4.3
120 WR Adonai MitchellNYJ WR59 4.2
121 RB George HolaniSEA RB42 4.2
122 WR Dontayvion WicksPHI WR60 4.2
123 WR Calvin RidleyTEN WR61 4.2
124 WR Jalen McMillanTBQQuestionable WR62 4.1
125 TE Terrance FergusonLAR TE21 4.1
126 TE Pat FreiermuthPIT TE22 4.1
127 WR Malik WashingtonMIA WR63 4.0
128 WR Denzel BostonCLE WR64 4.0
129 WR Cooper KuppSEA WR65 4.0
130 WR Jalen NailorLV WR66 3.9
131 WR Kayshon BoutteHOU WR67 3.9
132 WR Jerry JeudyCLE WR68 3.9
133 RB Samaje PerineCIN RB43 3.9
134 WR Rashod BatemanBAL WR69 3.8
135 RB RJ HarveyDEN RB44 3.8
136 WR Caleb DouglasMIA WR70 3.8
137 TE AJ BarnerSEA TE23 3.8
138 RB Mike Washington Jr.LV RB45 3.7
139 TE Greg DulcichMIA TE24 3.7
140 WR Jauan JenningsMIN WR71 3.7
141 RB Chris BrooksGB RB46 3.7
142 WR Tre HarrisLACQQuestionable WR72 3.7
143 TE Gunnar HelmTEN TE25 3.6
144 RB Justice HillBAL RB47 3.6
145 RB Tyler AllgeierARI RB48 3.5
146 TE Chig OkonkwoWAS TE26 3.5
147 WR Jaylin NoelHOUQQuestionable WR73 3.5
148 WR Xavier HutchinsonHOU WR74 3.4
149 RB Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX RB49 3.3
150 RB Keaton MitchellLACQQuestionable RB50 3.3
151 WR Travis HunterJAX WR75 3.2
152 WR Keenan AllenIND WR76 3.2
153 WR Ja'Kobi LaneBAL WR77 3.2
154 RB Kendre MillerNOQQuestionable RB51 3.2
155 WR Xavier LegetteCARQQuestionable WR78 3.1
156 WR Germie BernardPIT WR79 3.1
157 TE Mike GesickiCIN TE27 3.1
158 TE Cade OttonTB TE28 3.0
159 WR Malachi FieldsNYG WR80 3.0
160 RB Brian RobinsonATL RB52 3.0
161 WR Jahan DotsonATL WR81 3.0
162 RB Braelon AllenNYJ RB53 2.9
163 RB Najee HarrisNYG RB54 2.9
164 RB Jacob SaylorsDET RB55 2.9
165 TE Kenyon SadiqNYJQQuestionable TE29 2.8
166 TE Darren WallerCAR TE30 2.8
167 RB Corey KinerARI RB56 2.8
168 RB Tank BigsbyPHI RB57 2.8
169 TE Michael MayerLV TE31 2.8
170 TE David NjokuLAC TE32 2.8
171 RB Dylan SampsonCLE RB58 2.8
172 RB Ty JohnsonBUFQQuestionable RB59 2.7
173 TE Mason TaylorNYJ TE33 2.7
174 WR Jack BechLV WR82 2.7
175 WR DeMario DouglasNE WR83 2.7
176 TE Darnell WashingtonPIT TE34 2.6
177 WR Isaac TeSlaaDET WR84 2.6
178 RB Jonah ColemanDEN RB60 2.6
179 WR Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ WR85 2.6
180 WR Jalen TolbertMIA WR86 2.6
181 WR Kendrick BourneARI WR87 2.6
182 TE Colby ParkinsonLAR TE35 2.6
183 WR Ryan FlournoyDAL WR88 2.5
184 WR Chris BellMIA WR89 2.5
185 RB Malik DavisDAL RB61 2.5
186 WR Zachariah BranchATL WR90 2.4
187 TE Evan EngramDEN TE36 2.4
188 TE Dawson KnoxBUF TE37 2.4
189 RB Kaelon BlackSF RB62 2.3
190 WR Antonio WilliamsWAS WR91 2.3
191 WR Tyquan ThorntonKC WR92 2.3
192 WR Pat BryantDEN WR93 2.3
193 WR Keon ColemanBUFQQuestionable WR94 2.3
194 RB Emmett JohnsonKC RB63 2.3
195 WR Kalif RaymondCHI WR95 2.3
196 WR Andrei IosivasCIN WR96 2.2
197 WR Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA WR97 2.2
198 RB Alvin KamaraNOQQuestionable RB64 2.2
199 WR Darnell MooneyNYG WR98 2.2
200 RB Jaylen WrightMIA RB65 2.2

How these are made

This board was built from draft position for 100%, an outside projection for 64%, sportsbook props for 30%, an official status for 85%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Half PPR, 1QB.

Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured September 9, 2026 18:39 UTC. Model rankings-v1.3.0, board captured 2026-09-09.

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); Polymarket (prediction-market prices); The Odds API (player props).

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