NE · Bye 11
Hunter Henry
LMD TE13 for Week 3 · 7.1 projected Half PPR points · TE14 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.1 points this week, TE13. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 30% · Top 24: 53% of simulated weeks. Up 9 since Week 2.
Week 3
TE13
102nd by projected points
Rest of season
TE14
117th by projected points
Projected
7.1
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
30%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 53% at TE
Movement
↑ 9
TE22 in Week 2, TE13 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.62 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.58 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.22 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Three-catch day for Hunter Henry in Week 2
USA TODAY ·
-
What to wear to NFL games in 2026: Featuring Hunter Henry, Sam Darnold, DeVonta Smith, and Jahmyr Gibbs' Wives and Girlfriend with Kristin Juszczyk
timesofindia.indiatimes.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Hunter Henry by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Hunter Henry has averaged -0.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ SEA | 5.0 | 4.1 | -0.9 |
| Wk 2 | vs PIT | 5.0 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| Wk 3 | @ JAX | 7.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 103.9 points this season, TE14. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 34% · Top 24: 89% of simulated seasons. That is 7.2 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 7 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
7.2 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 34% · Top 24: 89%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Hunter Henry #153 in 1QB and #150 in Superflex, TE18 at his position. Age 31.
1QB
#153
TE18 · tier 34 · of 297
Superflex
#150
TE18 · tier 27 · of 303
- Last season 148.8 pts 8.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 94% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 18% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
9.06
pick 102.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.05
half of simulations take him by pick 101
Draft range
8.01 - 11.01
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,997 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.05 in 51% of simulations
Pick 101 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 10.08, where he is available in 17% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 9.05 51% · 10.08 17% · 11.05 7% · 12.08 1% · 13.05 <1% · 14.08 <1% · 15.05 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.07 and 10.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.03 | 56% |
| 9.04 | 53% |
| 9.05 | 51% |
| 9.06 | 48% |
| 9.07 | 46% |
| 9.08 | 43% |
| 9.09 | 40% |
| 9.10 | 38% |
| 9.11 | 36% |
| 9.12 | 33% |
| 10.01 | 31% |
| 10.02 | 29% |
| 10.03 | 27% |
| 10.04 | 25% |
| 10.05 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.01-8.02 | 4% | 415 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 4% | 435 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 5% | 451 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 5% | 524 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 5% | 479 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 6% | 615 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 5% | 524 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 5% | 537 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 5% | 482 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 5% | 534 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 5% | 464 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 4% | 398 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 4% | 397 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 4% | 403 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 3% | 321 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 3% | 287 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 2% | 233 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01 | <1% | 97 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9997 simulations in which Hunter Henry was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 3%
- Oronde Gadsden II TE · LAC 2%
- Tucker Kraft TE · GB 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
Usually taken just after
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
- Oronde Gadsden II TE · LAC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Hunter Henry was selected in 9997 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.