IND · Bye 13
Josh Downs
LMD WR39 for Week 3 · 8.1 projected Half PPR points · WR46 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.1 points this week, WR39. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 24% of simulated weeks. Up 19 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR39
79th by projected points
Rest of season
WR46
89th by projected points
Projected
8.1
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
11%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 24% at WR
Movement
↑ 19
WR58 in Week 2, WR39 now
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-1.46 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.69 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.21 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Fantasy Football Usage Report: Jacory Croskey-Merritt rises, Josh Downs raises concerns
Yahoo Sports ·
-
STATUS
Josh Downs is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Josh Downs vs. Keenan Allen Isn’t Actually Colts Conflict
Yahoo Sports ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Josh Downs's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 94.5 to 101.3 over the last 7 days.
-
Josh Downs Fantasy Week 1 Start or Sit: Looking for Reasons to Buy
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Josh Downs by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Josh Downs has averaged +3.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BAL | 4.7 | 4.7 | 0.0 |
| Wk 2 | @ KC | 4.0 | 10.7 | +6.7 |
| Wk 3 | vs HOU | 8.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR47. For the rest of the season LMD has him 1 spot higher, at WR46.
Preseason market: WR47 · ADP 96.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR46 +1
LMD has him 1 spot higher than his WR47 draft price.
Week 3
WR39 +8
LMD has him 8 spots higher than his WR47 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR47 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 119.2 points this season, WR46. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 12% of simulated seasons. That is 8.3 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 29 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
8.3 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 12%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Josh Downs #115 in 1QB and #120 in Superflex, WR49 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#115
WR49 · tier 26 · of 297
Superflex
#120
WR49 · tier 21 · of 303
- Last season 109.4 pts 6.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 20% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.07
pick 127.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.05
half of simulations take him by pick 125
Draft range
10.03 - 12.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,872 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.05 in 51% of simulations
Pick 125 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 12.08, where he is available in 15% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 11.05 51% · 12.08 15% · 13.05 8% · 14.08 7% · 15.05 4%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.08 and 12.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.03 | 58% |
| 11.04 | 55% |
| 11.05 | 51% |
| 11.06 | 48% |
| 11.07 | 46% |
| 11.08 | 43% |
| 11.09 | 40% |
| 11.10 | 37% |
| 11.11 | 35% |
| 11.12 | 33% |
| 12.01 | 30% |
| 12.02 | 28% |
| 12.03 | 26% |
| 12.04 | 24% |
| 12.05 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.03-10.04 | 5% | 528 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 6% | 556 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 6% | 566 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 6% | 583 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 6% | 560 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 6% | 626 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 6% | 621 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 6% | 568 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.08 | 6% | 561 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.10 | 5% | 516 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-11.12 | 5% | 461 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.02 | 4% | 437 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.04 | 4% | 449 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.06 | 4% | 400 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.08 | 4% | 351 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.10 | 3% | 274 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9872 simulations in which Josh Downs was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 3%
- Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 3%
- Michael Pittman WR · PIT 2%
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2%
Usually taken just after
- Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 3%
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
- De'Zhaun Stribling WR · SF 2%
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Josh Downs was selected in 9872 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.