CAR · Bye 5
Chuba Hubbard
LMD RB22 for Week 3 · 10.3 projected Half PPR points · RB25 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 10.3 points this week, RB22. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 22% · Top 24: 45% of simulated weeks. Up 3 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB22
38th by projected points
Rest of season
RB25
51st by projected points
Projected
10.3
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
22%
Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 45% at RB
Movement
↑ 3
RB25 in Week 2, RB22 now
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.12 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.63 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Chuba Hubbard is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Chuba Hubbard's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 87.9 to 76.4 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Chuba Hubbard has averaged +11.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CHI | 5.3 | 22.2 | +16.9 |
| Wk 2 | @ ATL | 7.9 | 13.4 | +5.5 |
| Wk 3 | @ CLE | 10.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 146.2 points this season, RB25. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 49% of simulated seasons. That is 10.5 a game over 15 remaining games.
Per game
10.5 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 49%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Chuba Hubbard #144 in 1QB and #145 in Superflex, RB40 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#144
RB40 · tier 32 · of 297
Superflex
#145
RB40 · tier 26 · of 303
- Last season 110.4 pts 7.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 91% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 15.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 10% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.02
pick 86.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.01
half of simulations take him by pick 85
Draft range
6.08 - 9.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.01 in 53% of simulations
Pick 85 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 9.12, where he is available in 6% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 8.01 53% · 9.12 6% · 10.01 5% · 11.12 <1% · 12.01 <1% · 13.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.04 and 8.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.11 | 59% |
| 7.12 | 56% |
| 8.01 | 53% |
| 8.02 | 50% |
| 8.03 | 47% |
| 8.04 | 44% |
| 8.05 | 42% |
| 8.06 | 39% |
| 8.07 | 36% |
| 8.08 | 34% |
| 8.09 | 31% |
| 8.10 | 29% |
| 8.11 | 27% |
| 8.12 | 25% |
| 9.01 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.08-6.09 | 3% | 344 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10-6.11 | 3% | 348 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 4% | 362 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02-7.03 | 4% | 418 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 5% | 526 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 6% | 562 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 6% | 586 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 6% | 564 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 5% | 526 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 5% | 505 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 5% | 484 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 4% | 411 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 4% | 374 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 3% | 328 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 3% | 306 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08 | 1% | 145 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Chuba Hubbard was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Tucker Kraft TE · GB 2%
- Tony Pollard RB · TEN 2%
- Kyle Pitts TE · ATL 2%
- Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 2%
Usually taken just after
- Dak Prescott QB · DAL 3%
- Tucker Kraft TE · GB 2%
- Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 2%
- Tony Pollard RB · TEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Chuba Hubbard was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.