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TE

PHI · Bye 10

Dallas Goedert

LMD TE16 for Week 3 · 6.5 projected Half PPR points · TE17 rest of season

Doubtful

Regular season

Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 6.5 points this week, TE16. Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 27% · Top 24: 45% of simulated weeks. Listed doubtful. Down 5 since Week 2.

Week 3

TE16

119th by projected points

Rest of season

TE17

126th by projected points

Projected

6.5

week 3, Half PPR

Top 12

27%

Top 3: 7% · Top 24: 45% at TE

Movement

↓ 5

TE11 in Week 2, TE16 now

Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All TE rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Dallas Goedert by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 2 completed games Dallas Goedert has averaged +4.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Dallas Goedert, Half PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs WAS 6.2 21.7 +15.5
Wk 2 @ TEN 6.8 0.9 -5.9
Wk 3 @ CHI 6.5 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Draft Return

How he compares with his draft price

The draft market had him at TE10. For the rest of the season LMD has him 7 spots lower, at TE17.

Preseason market: TE10 · ADP 116.0

Season to date

Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.

Rest of season

TE17 −7

LMD has him 7 spots lower than his TE10 draft price.

Week 3

TE16 −6

LMD has him 6 spots lower than his TE10 draft price.

Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026

Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.

TE10 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.

ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 100.0 points this season, TE17. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 28% · Top 24: 85% of simulated seasons. That is 6.7 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed doubtful. Down 9 since the Sept. 20 board.

Per game

6.7 / game

Over 15 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 28% · Top 24: 85%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE

Market input

none

No market signal available.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Dallas Goedert #149 in 1QB and #144 in Superflex, TE16 at his position. Age 31.

1QB

#149

TE16 · tier 33 · of 297

Superflex

#144

TE16 · tier 26 · of 303

  • Last season 155.1 pts 10.3 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 78% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 5.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 20% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty TE rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

9.10

pick 106.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

9.09

half of simulations take him by pick 105

Draft range

8.05 - 11.06

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 9,992 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams also published: 14 teams
Scoring Half PPR also published: Full PPR, Standard
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Redraft also published: Dynasty

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 9.09 in 50% of simulations

Pick 105 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 9, the same seat picks again at 10.04, where he is available in 33% of simulations.

Slot 9's remaining turns: 9.09 50% · 10.04 33% · 11.09 8% · 12.04 3% · 13.09 <1% · 14.04 <1% · 15.09 <1%

The middle half of simulations take him between 8.11 and 10.07.

Dallas Goedert still on the board
PickAvailable
9.07 56%
9.08 53%
9.09 50%
9.10 47%
9.11 45%
9.12 42%
10.01 40%
10.02 37%
10.03 35%
10.04 33%
10.05 31%
10.06 29%
10.07 27%
10.08 25%
10.09 23%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Dallas Goedert was selected at each pick, 8.05-8.06 through 11.05-11.06. He goes earlier than this window in 10%, later in 9%, undrafted in <1%.
Draft position distribution for Dallas Goedert
PickShare of simulationsCount
8.05-8.065%496 of 10000 simulations
8.07-8.084%434 of 10000 simulations
8.09-8.105%522 of 10000 simulations
8.11-8.125%525 of 10000 simulations
9.01-9.025%495 of 10000 simulations
9.03-9.045%514 of 10000 simulations
9.05-9.065%499 of 10000 simulations
9.07-9.085%542 of 10000 simulations
9.09-9.105%520 of 10000 simulations
9.11-9.125%546 of 10000 simulations
10.01-10.024%419 of 10000 simulations
10.03-10.045%473 of 10000 simulations
10.05-10.064%398 of 10000 simulations
10.07-10.084%391 of 10000 simulations
10.09-10.103%324 of 10000 simulations
10.11-10.123%329 of 10000 simulations
11.01-11.022%243 of 10000 simulations
11.03-11.042%235 of 10000 simulations
11.05-11.062%200 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 9992 simulations in which Dallas Goedert was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Dallas Goedert was selected in 9992 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
September 17, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Half PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.