TEN · Bye 9
Tyjae Spears
LMD RB38 for Week 3 · 7.1 projected Half PPR points · RB39 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.1 points this week, RB38. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 25% of simulated weeks. Up 6 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB38
106th by projected points
Rest of season
RB39
119th by projected points
Projected
7.1
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
9%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 25% at RB
Movement
↑ 6
RB44 in Week 2, RB38 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.42 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.42 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.25 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Tyjae Spears posts 24 total yards in opener
USA TODAY ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Tyjae Spears's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 132.3 to 144.5 over the last 7 days.
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Tyjae Spears by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Tyjae Spears has averaged +0.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NYJ | 5.6 | 3.4 | -2.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs PHI | 5.0 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| Wk 3 | @ NYG | 7.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 103.5 points this season, RB39. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3% of simulated seasons. That is 7.3 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 2 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
7.3 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tyjae Spears #150 in 1QB and #153 in Superflex, RB43 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#150
RB43 · tier 34 · of 297
Superflex
#153
RB43 · tier 28 · of 303
- Last season 89.2 pts 6.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 79% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 9.7 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.08
pick 164.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.02
half of simulations take him by pick 170
Draft range
12.10 - 15.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 5,224 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.02 in 75% of simulations
Pick 170 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 13.05 and 15.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.12 | 78% |
| 15.01 | 77% |
| 15.02 | 75% |
| 15.03 | 72% |
| 15.04 | 70% |
| 15.05 | 67% |
| 15.06 | 65% |
| 15.07 | 62% |
| 15.08 | 60% |
| 15.09 | 57% |
| 15.10 | 55% |
| 15.11 | 52% |
| 15.12 | 50% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.10-12.11 | 6% | 628 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 3% | 318 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 22 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 34 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 34 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 36 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 56 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | <1% | 88 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | 1% | 129 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | 1% | 113 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 1% | 126 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 1% | 130 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 2% | 190 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 3% | 315 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 5% | 510 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 5% | 489 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 5% | 468 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08-15.09 | 5% | 519 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 234 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 5224 simulations in which Tyjae Spears was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 3%
- Alvin Kamara RB · NO 2%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 2%
Usually taken just after
- Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 2%
- Jake Bates K · DET 2%
- Alvin Kamara RB · NO 2%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tyjae Spears was selected in 5224 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.