CIN · Bye 6
Tee Higgins
LMD WR14 for Week 3 · 10.5 projected Half PPR points · WR15 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 10.5 points this week, WR14. Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 37% of simulated weeks. Up 6 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR14
36th by projected points
Rest of season
WR15
36th by projected points
Projected
10.5
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
21%
Top 3: 5% · Top 24: 37% at WR
Movement
↑ 6
WR20 in Week 2, WR14 now
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.92 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.53 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.03 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Tee Higgins goes for team-high 95 yards receiving in Week 2
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Tee Higgins has solid outing in Week 1
USA TODAY ·
-
Tee Higgins Fantasy Prediction 2026: The Injury Risk Isn’t Worth Round 4
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Tee Higgins discusses ending playoff drought, fashion, and Bengals prolific offense
sbnation.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Tee Higgins by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Tee Higgins has averaged +1.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs TB | 8.5 | 7.4 | -1.1 |
| Wk 2 | @ HOU | 7.7 | 12.0 | +4.3 |
| Wk 3 | @ PIT | 10.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR20. For the rest of the season LMD has him 5 spots higher, at WR15.
Preseason market: WR20 · ADP 36.2
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR15 +5
LMD has him 5 spots higher than his WR20 draft price.
Week 3
WR14 +6
LMD has him 6 spots higher than his WR20 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR20 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 160.7 points this season, WR15. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 31% · Top 24: 65% of simulated seasons. That is 11.0 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 8 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
11.0 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 31% · Top 24: 65%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tee Higgins #60 in 1QB and #65 in Superflex, WR20 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#60
WR20 · tier 16 · of 297
Superflex
#65
WR20 · tier 13 · of 303
- Last season 182.1 pts 12.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 79% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 20% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.09
pick 33.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.10
half of simulations take him by pick 34
Draft range
2.09 - 4.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.10 in 52% of simulations
Pick 34 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 4.03, where he is available in 29% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 3.10 52% · 4.03 29% · 5.10 <1% · 6.03 <1% · 7.10 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.04 and 4.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.08 | 61% |
| 3.09 | 56% |
| 3.10 | 52% |
| 3.11 | 47% |
| 3.12 | 42% |
| 4.01 | 38% |
| 4.02 | 33% |
| 4.03 | 29% |
| 4.04 | 25% |
| 4.05 | 21% |
| 4.06 | 18% |
| 4.07 | 15% |
| 4.08 | 12% |
| 4.09 | 9% |
| 4.10 | 7% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.09 | 2% | 153 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10 | 2% | 193 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11 | 2% | 201 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 2% | 204 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 2% | 227 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 3% | 260 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 3% | 257 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 3% | 310 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 3% | 308 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 4% | 391 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 4% | 433 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 4% | 449 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 5% | 465 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 5% | 479 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 5% | 455 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 4% | 418 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 4% | 407 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 4% | 439 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 4% | 387 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 3% | 335 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 3% | 305 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 3% | 304 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 2% | 231 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Tee Higgins was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Malik Nabers WR · NYG 4%
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 4%
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 4%
- Brock Bowers TE · LV 4%
Usually taken just after
- Malik Nabers WR · NYG 5%
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 4%
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 4%
- Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tee Higgins was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.