NO · Bye 8
Alvin Kamara
LMD RB32 for Week 3 · 8.0 projected Half PPR points · RB35 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.0 points this week, RB32. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 14% · Top 24: 31% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 22 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB32
82nd by projected points
Rest of season
RB35
95th by projected points
Projected
8.0
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
14%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 31% at RB
Movement
↑ 22
RB54 in Week 2, RB32 now
- Draft / market prior
- Strong negative-2.56 pts
- Recent usage & efficiencyLimited data
- Slight positive+0.26 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.19 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Alvin Kamara has averaged +1.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ DET | 2.2 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | @ BAL | 3.7 | 4.7 | +1.0 |
| Wk 3 | vs LV | 8.0 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 118.1 points this season, RB35. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 13% of simulated seasons. That is 8.0 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 15 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
8.0 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 13%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Alvin Kamara #216 in 1QB and #217 in Superflex, RB56 at his position. Age 31.
1QB
#216
RB56 · tier 47 · of 297
Superflex
#217
RB56 · tier 40 · of 303
- Last season 84.2 pts 7.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 72% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 18.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 16% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.12
pick 155.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
13.12
half of simulations take him by pick 156
Draft range
12.05 - 15.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 6,775 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 13.12 in 66% of simulations
Pick 156 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 14.01, where he is available in 66% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 13.12 66% · 14.01 66% · 15.12 34%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.08 and 15.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 13.10 | 67% |
| 13.11 | 67% |
| 13.12 | 66% |
| 14.01 | 66% |
| 14.02 | 66% |
| 14.03 | 65% |
| 14.04 | 64% |
| 14.05 | 64% |
| 14.06 | 63% |
| 14.07 | 63% |
| 14.08 | 62% |
| 14.09 | 61% |
| 14.10 | 61% |
| 14.11 | 60% |
| 14.12 | 59% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.05-12.06 | 6% | 629 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.08 | 6% | 642 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.10 | 6% | 649 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-12.12 | 6% | 604 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | <1% | 13 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | <1% | 20 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | <1% | 25 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | <1% | 38 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | <1% | 62 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | <1% | 56 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | 1% | 119 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | <1% | 94 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | 1% | 102 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | 1% | 149 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | 1% | 147 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 2% | 160 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 5% | 460 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.04 | 4% | 449 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 5% | 450 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07-15.08 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 201 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 6775 simulations in which Alvin Kamara was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
- Rachaad White RB · WAS 2%
- Xavier Worthy WR · KC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 3%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 2%
- Rachaad White RB · WAS 2%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Alvin Kamara was selected in 6775 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.