BAL · Bye 13
Derrick Henry
LMD RB4 for Week 3 · 17.9 projected Half PPR points · RB3 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 17.9 points this week, RB4. Top 3: 19% · Top 12: 53% · Top 24: 76% of simulated weeks. Up 1 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB4
4th by projected points
Rest of season
RB3
3rd by projected points
Projected
17.9
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
53%
Top 3: 19% · Top 24: 76% at RB
Movement
↑ 1
RB5 in Week 2, RB4 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+1.48 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.99 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.21 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Ravens news: Derrick Henry has no hard feelings for Declan Doyle
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Derrick Henry Has Saints Defender Sounding Alarm Before Sunday
yardbarker.com ·
-
Emmitt Smith believes Derrick Henry can surpass him as NFL's all-time leading rusher
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Could Ravens' Derrick Henry actually challenge Emmitt Smith's rushing record?
yardbarker.com ·
-
Ravens HB Derrick Henry simply had too much horsepower vs. Colts
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Derrick Henry by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Derrick Henry has averaged +11.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ IND | 12.2 | 34.8 | +22.6 |
| Wk 2 | vs NO | 15.5 | 16.2 | +0.7 |
| Wk 3 | @ DAL | 17.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB6. For the rest of the season LMD has him 3 spots higher, at RB3.
Preseason market: RB6 · ADP 10.0
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB3 +3
LMD has him 3 spots higher than his RB6 draft price.
Week 3
RB4 +2
LMD has him 2 spots higher than his RB6 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB6 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 271.7 points this season, RB3. Top 3: 40% · Top 12: 96% · Top 24: 100% of simulated seasons. That is 18.1 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 1 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
18.1 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 40% · Top 12: 96% · Top 24: 100%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Derrick Henry #22 in 1QB and #31 in Superflex, RB11 at his position. Age 32.
1QB
#22
RB11 · tier 9 · of 297
Superflex
#31
RB11 · tier 8 · of 303
- Last season 272.0 pts 16.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 19.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 6% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
1.07
pick 7.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
1.08
half of simulations take him by pick 8
Draft range
1.01 - 1.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 1.08 in 57% of simulations
Pick 8 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 2.05, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 1.08 57% · 2.05 <1% · 3.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 1.04 and 1.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 1.06 | 69% |
| 1.07 | 64% |
| 1.08 | 57% |
| 1.09 | 47% |
| 1.10 | 35% |
| 1.11 | 24% |
| 1.12 | 14% |
| 2.01 | 8% |
| 2.02 | 4% |
| 2.03 | 2% |
| 2.04 | 1% |
| 2.05 | <1% |
| 2.06 | <1% |
| 2.07 | <1% |
| 2.08 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 1.01 | 12% | 1233 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.02 | 7% | 687 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.03 | 4% | 376 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.04 | 3% | 299 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.05 | 5% | 461 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.06 | 6% | 561 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.07 | 7% | 722 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.08 | 10% | 960 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.09 | 12% | 1211 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.10 | 11% | 1140 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.11 | 10% | 958 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.12 | 6% | 639 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Derrick Henry was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- James Cook RB · BUF 13%
- Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 11%
- Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 9%
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 6%
Usually taken just after
- James Cook RB · BUF 13%
- Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 8%
- Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 7%
- De'Von Achane RB · MIA 7%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Derrick Henry was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.