IND · Bye 13
Tyler Warren
LMD TE7 for Week 3 · 9.1 projected Half PPR points · TE7 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 9.1 points this week, TE7. Top 3: 14% · Top 12: 42% · Top 24: 64% of simulated weeks. Down 2 since Week 2.
Week 3
TE7
63rd by projected points
Rest of season
TE7
66th by projected points
Projected
9.1
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
42%
Top 3: 14% · Top 24: 64% at TE
Movement
↓ 2
TE5 in Week 2, TE7 now
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-1.15 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.35 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.20 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Tyler Warren is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Tyler Warren scores late touchdown in Week 1 loss to Ravens
Yahoo Sports ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Tyler Warren's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 69.4 to 74.6 over the last 7 days.
-
Dave Richard's Final Tight End Tiers: Colston Loveland in a tier all his own; Tyler Warren dips a smidge
CBS Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Tyler Warren by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Tyler Warren has averaged +1.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BAL | 8.4 | 8.8 | +0.4 |
| Wk 2 | @ KC | 8.1 | 11.4 | +3.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs HOU | 9.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE4. For the rest of the season LMD has him 3 spots lower, at TE7.
Preseason market: TE4 · ADP 71.2
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE7 −3
LMD has him 3 spots lower than his TE4 draft price.
Week 3
TE7 −3
LMD has him 3 spots lower than his TE4 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE4 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 134.2 points this season, TE7. Top 3: 17% · Top 12: 79% · Top 24: 98% of simulated seasons. That is 9.2 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 3 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
9.2 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 17% · Top 12: 79% · Top 24: 98%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tyler Warren #38 in 1QB and #44 in Superflex, TE4 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#38
TE4 · tier 13 · of 297
Superflex
#44
TE4 · tier 10 · of 303
- Last season 150.5 pts 8.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 21% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
6.08
pick 67.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
6.08
half of simulations take him by pick 68
Draft range
5.05 - 7.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 6.08 in 53% of simulations
Pick 68 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 7.05, where he is available in 22% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 6.08 53% · 7.05 22% · 8.08 <1% · 9.05 <1% · 10.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.12 and 7.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 6.06 | 60% |
| 6.07 | 57% |
| 6.08 | 53% |
| 6.09 | 50% |
| 6.10 | 46% |
| 6.11 | 43% |
| 6.12 | 39% |
| 7.01 | 35% |
| 7.02 | 31% |
| 7.03 | 28% |
| 7.04 | 25% |
| 7.05 | 22% |
| 7.06 | 19% |
| 7.07 | 16% |
| 7.08 | 14% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 5.05-5.06 | 3% | 316 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07-5.08 | 4% | 391 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09-5.10 | 4% | 427 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11-5.12 | 5% | 451 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01-6.02 | 5% | 544 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03-6.04 | 6% | 618 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05-6.06 | 6% | 631 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07-6.08 | 7% | 692 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09-6.10 | 7% | 731 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11-6.12 | 8% | 770 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 7% | 707 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03-7.04 | 6% | 598 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 6% | 554 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 5% | 465 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09 | 2% | 206 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Tyler Warren was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 3%
- Colston Loveland TE · CHI 3%
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
Usually taken just after
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 3%
- Sam LaPorta TE · DET 3%
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tyler Warren was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.