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TB · Bye 10

Cade Otton

LMD TE22 for Week 3 · 5.6 projected Half PPR points · TE22 rest of season

Regular season

Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 5.6 points this week, TE22. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 20% · Top 24: 41% of simulated weeks. Up 7 since Week 2.

Week 3

TE22

138th by projected points

Rest of season

TE22

157th by projected points

Projected

5.6

week 3, Half PPR

Top 12

20%

Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 41% at TE

Movement

↑ 7

TE29 in Week 2, TE22 now

Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All TE rankings · Projected points board

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 2 completed games Cade Otton has averaged +1.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Cade Otton, Half PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 @ CIN 3.0 4.1 +1.1
Wk 2 vs CLE 3.9 6.3 +2.4
Wk 3 vs MIN 5.6 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 80.5 points this season, TE22. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 5% · Top 24: 52% of simulated seasons. That is 5.4 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 2 since the Sept. 20 board.

Per game

5.4 / game

Over 15 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 5% · Top 24: 52%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE

Market input

none

No market signal available.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Cade Otton #187 in 1QB and #188 in Superflex, TE25 at his position. Age 27.

1QB

#187

TE25 · tier 42 · of 297

Superflex

#188

TE25 · tier 35 · of 303

  • Last season 92.7 pts 6.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 89% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 5.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty TE rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

15.05

pick 172.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

15.05

half of simulations take him by pick 173

Draft range

14.09 - 15.11

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 2,298 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams also published: 14 teams
Scoring Half PPR also published: Full PPR
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Redraft also published: Dynasty

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 15.05 in 90% of simulations

Pick 173 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

The middle half of simulations take him between 15.02 and 15.09.

Cade Otton still on the board
PickAvailable
15.03 93%
15.04 92%
15.05 90%
15.06 88%
15.07 87%
15.08 85%
15.09 84%
15.10 82%
15.11 80%
15.12 79%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Cade Otton was selected at each pick, 14.09 through 15.11. He goes earlier than this window in 2%, later in 2%, undrafted in 77%.
Draft position distribution for Cade Otton
PickShare of simulationsCount
14.09<1%51 of 10000 simulations
14.10<1%52 of 10000 simulations
14.11<1%47 of 10000 simulations
14.12<1%54 of 10000 simulations
15.011%121 of 10000 simulations
15.021%129 of 10000 simulations
15.032%157 of 10000 simulations
15.042%157 of 10000 simulations
15.052%188 of 10000 simulations
15.062%163 of 10000 simulations
15.072%153 of 10000 simulations
15.082%162 of 10000 simulations
15.092%160 of 10000 simulations
15.102%180 of 10000 simulations
15.111%147 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 2298 simulations in which Cade Otton was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Cade Otton was selected in 2298 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
September 17, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Half PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.