LV · Bye 13
Jalen Nailor
LMD WR89 for Week 3 · 4.8 projected Half PPR points · WR108 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.8 points this week, WR89. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 8% of simulated weeks. Down 23 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR89
160th by projected points
Rest of season
WR108
185th by projected points
Projected
4.8
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
2%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 8% at WR
Movement
↓ 23
WR66 in Week 2, WR89 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.44 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.02 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.08 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Jalen Nailor has averaged -2.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs MIA | 5.1 | 4.2 | -0.9 |
| Wk 2 | @ LAC | 4.9 | 1.4 | -3.5 |
| Wk 3 | @ NO | 4.8 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 72.1 points this season, WR108. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 4.7 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 55 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
4.7 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jalen Nailor #270 in 1QB and #278 in Superflex, WR109 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#270
WR109 · tier 64 · of 297
Superflex
#278
WR109 · tier 57 · of 303
- Last season 86.2 pts 5.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 80% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 2.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 10% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.04
pick 200.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.06
half of simulations take him by pick 202
Draft range
14.08 - 15.13
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 4,784 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.06 in 77% of simulations
Pick 202 overall in a 14-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.01 and 15.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.04 | 82% |
| 15.05 | 80% |
| 15.06 | 77% |
| 15.07 | 74% |
| 15.08 | 71% |
| 15.09 | 68% |
| 15.10 | 65% |
| 15.11 | 63% |
| 15.12 | 60% |
| 15.13 | 57% |
| 15.14 | 54% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.08 | <1% | 64 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | <1% | 68 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | <1% | 65 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | <1% | 81 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | <1% | 81 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.13 | <1% | 78 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.14 | 1% | 111 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 3% | 267 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 2% | 247 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 3% | 263 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 3% | 256 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 3% | 269 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 3% | 299 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 3% | 274 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 3% | 283 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 3% | 294 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 3% | 274 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 3% | 283 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 3% | 278 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.13 | 3% | 262 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 4784 simulations in which Jalen Nailor was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Ja'Kobi Lane WR · BAL 3%
- Will Reichard K · MIN 3%
- Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 3%
- Eddy Pineiro K · SF 3%
Usually taken just after
- Ja'Kobi Lane WR · BAL 3%
- Jalen McMillan WR · TB 2%
- Pat Bryant WR · DEN 2%
- Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jalen Nailor was selected in 4784 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.