DEN · Bye 10
J.K. Dobbins
LMD RB41 for Week 3 · 6.8 projected Half PPR points · RB47 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.8 points this week, RB41. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 25% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 4 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB41
113th by projected points
Rest of season
RB47
143rd by projected points
Projected
6.8
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
9%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 25% at RB
Movement
↓ 4
RB37 in Week 2, RB41 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.81 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-1.25 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.77 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
J.K. Dobbins dealing with minor injury
USA TODAY ·
-
J.K. Dobbins' latest injury update has huge fantasy football implications after Week 2 exit
lufkindailynews.com ·
-
Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins makes pinky promise with Denver media
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to J.K. Dobbins by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games J.K. Dobbins has averaged -1.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ KC | 5.4 | 3.6 | -1.8 |
| Wk 2 | vs JAX | 5.7 | 3.6 | -2.1 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAR | 6.8 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB29. For the rest of the season LMD has him 18 spots lower, at RB47.
Preseason market: RB29 · ADP 77.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB47 −18
LMD has him 18 spots lower than his RB29 draft price.
Week 3
RB41 −12
LMD has him 12 spots lower than his RB29 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB29 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 89.6 points this season, RB47. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 6.8 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 9 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
6.8 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has J.K. Dobbins #202 in 1QB and #205 in Superflex, RB51 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#202
RB51 · tier 44 · of 297
Superflex
#205
RB51 · tier 37 · of 303
- Last season 110.4 pts 11.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 54% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 15.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 8% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.07
pick 91.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.07
half of simulations take him by pick 91
Draft range
7.02 - 10.01
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.07 in 50% of simulations
Pick 91 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 9.06, where he is available in 23% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 8.07 50% · 9.06 23% · 10.07 5% · 11.06 <1% · 12.07 <1% · 13.06 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.09 and 9.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.05 | 55% |
| 8.06 | 53% |
| 8.07 | 50% |
| 8.08 | 47% |
| 8.09 | 44% |
| 8.10 | 42% |
| 8.11 | 40% |
| 8.12 | 37% |
| 9.01 | 35% |
| 9.02 | 32% |
| 9.03 | 30% |
| 9.04 | 28% |
| 9.05 | 26% |
| 9.06 | 23% |
| 9.07 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.02-7.03 | 4% | 359 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 4% | 398 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 5% | 518 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 5% | 520 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 6% | 586 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 6% | 567 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 6% | 550 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 5% | 524 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 5% | 468 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 5% | 485 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 4% | 439 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 4% | 400 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 4% | 367 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 3% | 318 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 3% | 278 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which J.K. Dobbins was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Michael Wilson WR · ARI 2%
- Dak Prescott QB · DAL 2%
- Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF 2%
- Tucker Kraft TE · GB 2%
Usually taken just after
- Tucker Kraft TE · GB 2%
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 2%
- Oronde Gadsden II TE · LAC 2%
- Aaron Jones RB · MIN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
J.K. Dobbins was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.