NE · Bye 11
DeMario Douglas
LMD WR72 for Week 3 · 5.7 projected Half PPR points · WR91 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.7 points this week, WR72. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 12% of simulated weeks. Down 16 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR72
136th by projected points
Rest of season
WR91
163rd by projected points
Projected
5.7
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
4%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 12% at WR
Movement
↓ 16
WR56 in Week 2, WR72 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.37 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.30 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.35 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games DeMario Douglas has averaged -1.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ SEA | 2.7 | 4.5 | +1.8 |
| Wk 2 | vs PIT | 5.2 | 1.4 | -3.8 |
| Wk 3 | @ JAX | 5.7 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 79.4 points this season, WR91. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 5.6 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 51 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
5.6 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has DeMario Douglas #185 in 1QB and #189 in Superflex, WR78 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#185
WR78 · tier 41 · of 297
Superflex
#189
WR78 · tier 35 · of 303
- Last season 80.3 pts 5.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 14% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.03
pick 170.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.03
half of simulations take him by pick 171
Draft range
14.07 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 4,782 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.03 in 77% of simulations
Pick 171 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.10 and 15.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.01 | 82% |
| 15.02 | 80% |
| 15.03 | 77% |
| 15.04 | 75% |
| 15.05 | 72% |
| 15.06 | 70% |
| 15.07 | 67% |
| 15.08 | 65% |
| 15.09 | 62% |
| 15.10 | 60% |
| 15.11 | 58% |
| 15.12 | 55% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.07 | 3% | 257 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | 3% | 297 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | 3% | 253 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | 2% | 248 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | 3% | 252 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | 2% | 236 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 2% | 224 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 3% | 253 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 235 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 232 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 234 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 3% | 254 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 249 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 3% | 256 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 3% | 254 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 227 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 3% | 283 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 4782 simulations in which DeMario Douglas was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Ted Hurst III WR · TB 3%
- Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 3%
- Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 3%
- Brashard Smith RB · KC 3%
Usually taken just after
- Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 3%
- Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 3%
- Jalen Coker WR · CAR 2%
- Chris Brazzell II WR · CAR 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
DeMario Douglas was selected in 4782 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.