BUF · Bye 7
DJ Moore
LMD WR34 for Week 3 · 8.6 projected Half PPR points · WR45 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.6 points this week, WR34. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 14% · Top 24: 27% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 18 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR34
72nd by projected points
Rest of season
WR45
87th by projected points
Projected
8.6
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
14%
Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 27% at WR
Movement
↓ 18
WR16 in Week 2, WR34 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+1.76 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-1.15 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.48 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
After DJ Moore went down, Keon Coleman stepped up for Bills in win over Lions
twobillsdrive.com ·
-
Buffalo Bills get promising DJ Moore injury update after shoulder injury vs. Lions
twobillsdrive.com ·
-
Bills to take time with Ed Oliver, DJ Moore injuries
twobillsdrive.com ·
-
DJ Moore hits 100 yards in debut with Bills
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Who Would You Rather. DJ Moore Or Maxx Crosby?
twobillsdrive.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to DJ Moore by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games DJ Moore has averaged +1.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ HOU | 7.1 | 18.5 | +11.4 |
| Wk 2 | vs DET | 8.8 | -0.1 | -8.9 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAC | 8.6 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR23. For the rest of the season LMD has him 22 spots lower, at WR45.
Preseason market: WR23 · ADP 45.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR45 −22
LMD has him 22 spots lower than his WR23 draft price.
Week 3
WR34 −11
LMD has him 11 spots lower than his WR23 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR23 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 119.6 points this season, WR45. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 12% of simulated seasons. That is 8.5 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 23 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
8.5 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 12%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has DJ Moore #90 in 1QB and #93 in Superflex, WR36 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#90
WR36 · tier 22 · of 297
Superflex
#93
WR36 · tier 17 · of 303
- Last season 147.2 pts 8.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 22% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
5.04
pick 52.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
5.05
half of simulations take him by pick 53
Draft range
4.06 - 6.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.05 in 51% of simulations
Pick 53 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 6.08, where he is available in 3% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 5.05 51% · 6.08 3% · 7.05 <1% · 8.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.11 and 5.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 5.03 | 61% |
| 5.04 | 56% |
| 5.05 | 51% |
| 5.06 | 46% |
| 5.07 | 41% |
| 5.08 | 35% |
| 5.09 | 30% |
| 5.10 | 26% |
| 5.11 | 21% |
| 5.12 | 18% |
| 6.01 | 14% |
| 6.02 | 12% |
| 6.03 | 9% |
| 6.04 | 8% |
| 6.05 | 6% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.06 | 2% | 181 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 2% | 194 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 3% | 280 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 3% | 299 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 3% | 340 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 4% | 365 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12 | 4% | 409 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01 | 5% | 456 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02 | 5% | 460 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03 | 5% | 504 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04 | 5% | 546 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05 | 5% | 481 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06 | 5% | 542 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07 | 5% | 507 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08 | 5% | 520 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09 | 5% | 453 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10 | 4% | 430 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11 | 4% | 366 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12 | 4% | 350 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01 | 3% | 262 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.02 | 2% | 215 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which DJ Moore was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Rome Odunze WR · CHI 4%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 4%
- D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 4%
- Luther Burden III WR · CHI 3%
Usually taken just after
- Rome Odunze WR · CHI 4%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 4%
- Jayden Daniels QB · WAS 3%
- Zay Flowers WR · BAL 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
DJ Moore was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.