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WR

NYJ · Bye 13

Adonai Mitchell

LMD WR42 for Week 3 · 8.0 projected Half PPR points · WR49 rest of season

Regular season

Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 8.0 points this week, WR42. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 24% of simulated weeks. Up 25 since Week 2.

Week 3

WR42

83rd by projected points

Rest of season

WR49

93rd by projected points

Projected

8.0

week 3, Half PPR

Top 12

11%

Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 24% at WR

Movement

↑ 25

WR67 in Week 2, WR42 now

Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All WR rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Adonai Mitchell by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 2 completed games Adonai Mitchell has averaged +3.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Adonai Mitchell, Half PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 @ TEN 4.2 7.5 +3.3
Wk 2 vs GB 4.8 9.3 +4.5
Wk 3 @ DET 8.0 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 118.7 points this season, WR49. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 11% of simulated seasons. That is 8.1 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 11 since the Sept. 20 board.

Per game

8.1 / game

Over 15 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 11%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR

Market input

none

No market signal available.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Adonai Mitchell #171 in 1QB and #177 in Superflex, WR72 at his position. Age 23.

1QB

#171

WR72 · tier 39 · of 297

Superflex

#177

WR72 · tier 33 · of 303

  • Last season 71.4 pts 4.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 96% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 4.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 14% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

15.04

pick 199.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

15.05

half of simulations take him by pick 201

Draft range

14.07 - 15.12

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 5,429 of them

Filters

League format

League size 14 teams
Scoring Half PPR
QB format 1QB
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 15.05 in 75% of simulations

Pick 201 overall in a 14-team draft · 10,000 simulations

The middle half of simulations take him between 15.01 and 15.09.

Adonai Mitchell still on the board
PickAvailable
15.03 81%
15.04 78%
15.05 75%
15.06 71%
15.07 68%
15.08 65%
15.09 62%
15.10 59%
15.11 56%
15.12 54%
15.13 51%
15.14 48%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Adonai Mitchell was selected at each pick, 14.07 through 15.12. He goes earlier than this window in 5%, later in 5%, undrafted in 46%.
Draft position distribution for Adonai Mitchell
PickShare of simulationsCount
14.07<1%65 of 10000 simulations
14.08<1%75 of 10000 simulations
14.09<1%75 of 10000 simulations
14.10<1%75 of 10000 simulations
14.111%107 of 10000 simulations
14.121%107 of 10000 simulations
14.131%116 of 10000 simulations
14.141%134 of 10000 simulations
15.013%297 of 10000 simulations
15.023%340 of 10000 simulations
15.033%332 of 10000 simulations
15.043%303 of 10000 simulations
15.053%321 of 10000 simulations
15.063%305 of 10000 simulations
15.073%314 of 10000 simulations
15.083%283 of 10000 simulations
15.093%315 of 10000 simulations
15.103%291 of 10000 simulations
15.113%273 of 10000 simulations
15.123%280 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 5429 simulations in which Adonai Mitchell was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Adonai Mitchell was selected in 5429 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
September 17, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
rank

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 14-team Half PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.