GB · Bye 11
Christian Watson
LMD WR8 for Week 3 · 12.0 projected Half PPR points · WR7 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 12.0 points this week, WR8. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 26% · Top 24: 44% of simulated weeks. Up 13 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR8
25th by projected points
Rest of season
WR7
23rd by projected points
Projected
12.0
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
26%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 44% at WR
Movement
↑ 13
WR21 in Week 2, WR8 now
- Draft / market prior
- Strong negative-2.39 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+1.80 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.04 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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Packers Film Room: Christian Watson, Jordan Love adjust for a touchdown
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Bucky Irving is in line to crush his ADP, Christian Watson to the moon and other early fantasy football takeaways
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Green Bay Packers receiver Christian Watson walks off the field after the loss to Minnesota.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Christian Watson gives Packers exactly what they paid $92 Million for
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Packers vs Vikings Live Update: Christian Watson Explodes For 81 Yard Career Long Touchdown
sundayguardianlive.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Christian Watson by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Christian Watson has averaged +14.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ MIN | 5.9 | 29.7 | +23.8 |
| Wk 2 | @ NYJ | 8.0 | 12.1 | +4.1 |
| Wk 3 | vs ATL | 12.0 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR28. For the rest of the season LMD has him 21 spots higher, at WR7.
Preseason market: WR28 · ADP 52.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR7 +21
LMD has him 21 spots higher than his WR28 draft price.
Week 3
WR8 +20
LMD has him 20 spots higher than his WR28 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR28 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 179.1 points this season, WR7. Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 54% · Top 24: 84% of simulated seasons. That is 11.8 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 14 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
11.8 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 54% · Top 24: 84%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Christian Watson #137 in 1QB and #141 in Superflex, WR59 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#137
WR59 · tier 30 · of 297
Superflex
#141
WR59 · tier 25 · of 303
- Last season 114.9 pts 11.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 65% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 18% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
7.03
pick 75.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
7.03
half of simulations take him by pick 75
Draft range
5.11 - 8.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 7.03 in 52% of simulations
Pick 75 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 3, the same seat picks again at 8.10, where he is available in 7% of simulations.
Slot 3's remaining turns: 7.03 52% · 8.10 7% · 9.03 3% · 10.10 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 6.06 and 7.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.01 | 59% |
| 7.02 | 56% |
| 7.03 | 52% |
| 7.04 | 49% |
| 7.05 | 45% |
| 7.06 | 43% |
| 7.07 | 39% |
| 7.08 | 36% |
| 7.09 | 33% |
| 7.10 | 30% |
| 7.11 | 27% |
| 7.12 | 25% |
| 8.01 | 22% |
| 8.02 | 20% |
| 8.03 | 18% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 5.11-5.12 | 3% | 342 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01-6.02 | 4% | 409 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03-6.04 | 4% | 409 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05-6.06 | 5% | 466 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07-6.08 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09-6.10 | 5% | 491 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11-6.12 | 5% | 526 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 6% | 619 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03-7.04 | 7% | 686 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 6% | 626 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 6% | 609 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 6% | 576 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 5% | 511 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 4% | 393 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 3% | 297 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07 | 1% | 137 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Christian Watson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Tyler Warren TE · IND 2%
- Carnell Tate WR · TEN 2%
- Michael Wilson WR · ARI 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jordyn Tyson WR · NO 3%
- Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 2%
- Kyle Monangai RB · CHI 2%
- Carnell Tate WR · TEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Christian Watson was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.