IND · Bye 13
Keenan Allen
LMD WR53 for Week 3 · 7.1 projected Half PPR points · WR66 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.1 points this week, WR53. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 8% · Top 24: 19% of simulated weeks. Up 2 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR53
103rd by projected points
Rest of season
WR66
118th by projected points
Projected
7.1
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
8%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 19% at WR
Movement
↑ 2
WR55 in Week 2, WR53 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.21 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.37 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.10 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Josh Downs vs. Keenan Allen Isn’t Actually Colts Conflict
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Josh Downs Fantasy Prediction 2026: Buy the Dip on the Keenan Allen Panic
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Daniel Jones, Keenan Allen star in Colts practice, Anthony Richardson struggles
indystar.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Keenan Allen by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Keenan Allen has averaged -0.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BAL | 3.2 | 6.2 | +3.0 |
| Wk 2 | @ KC | 4.2 | 1.0 | -3.2 |
| Wk 3 | vs HOU | 7.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 103.9 points this season, WR66. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3% of simulated seasons. That is 7.2 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 1 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
7.2 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Keenan Allen #140 in 1QB and #142 in Superflex, WR60 at his position. Age 34.
1QB
#140
WR60 · tier 31 · of 297
Superflex
#142
WR60 · tier 25 · of 303
- Last season 142.2 pts 8.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 8.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 25% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.06
pick 137.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.03
half of simulations take him by pick 135
Draft range
10.12 - 14.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,925 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.03 in 53% of simulations
Pick 135 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 13.10, where he is available in 17% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 12.03 53% · 13.10 17% · 14.03 11% · 15.10 1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.06 and 13.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.01 | 58% |
| 12.02 | 55% |
| 12.03 | 53% |
| 12.04 | 50% |
| 12.05 | 48% |
| 12.06 | 46% |
| 12.07 | 43% |
| 12.08 | 41% |
| 12.09 | 39% |
| 12.10 | 37% |
| 12.11 | 35% |
| 12.12 | 34% |
| 13.01 | 32% |
| 13.02 | 30% |
| 13.03 | 28% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.12-11.01 | 5% | 538 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 5% | 528 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 5% | 517 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 5% | 547 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 5% | 537 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 5% | 482 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 5% | 529 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.03 | 5% | 520 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.05 | 4% | 446 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 5% | 466 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 4% | 396 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 3% | 341 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 4% | 361 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | 3% | 343 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | 3% | 323 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | 3% | 314 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | 3% | 315 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | 3% | 262 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | 2% | 240 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | 2% | 213 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9925 simulations in which Keenan Allen was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Christian Watson WR · GB 2%
- Germie Bernard WR · PIT 2%
- Chimere Dike WR · TEN 2%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 2%
Usually taken just after
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 2%
- Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF 2%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 2%
- Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Keenan Allen was selected in 9925 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.