PIT · Bye 9
Michael Pittman
LMD WR47 rest of season · 119.0 projected Half PPR points
Out this week
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 119.0 points this season, WR47. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 14% of simulated seasons. That is 8.7 a game over 14 remaining games. Ruled out this week, so this projection is for the games after it. Up 25 since the Sept. 20 board.
Rest of season
WR47
91st by projected points
Projected
119.0
rest of season, Half PPR
Top 12
3%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 14% at WR
Movement
↑ 25
WR72 on Sept. 20, WR47 now
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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Steelers' Mike McCarthy Reveals The Latest Injury Status On Michael Pittman Jr Ahead Of Week 3
yardbarker.com ·
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McCarthy clarifies Steelers WR Michael Pittman injury as Week 3 return remains uncertain
cumberlink.com ·
-
Should Steelers Be Sweating Michael Pittman Jr.’s Injury?
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Michael Pittman Jr. working to return as Steelers’ offense searches for answers
triblive.com ·
-
Steelers news: Michael Pittman Jr.'s injury status after Joey Porter Jr. gets ruled out for Week 2
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Michael Pittman by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Michael Pittman has averaged +1.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ATL | 5.8 | 7.3 | +1.5 |
| Wk 2 | @ NE | 4.7 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR39. For the rest of the season LMD has him 8 spots lower, at WR47.
Preseason market: WR39 · ADP 79.7
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR47 −8
LMD has him 8 spots lower than his WR39 draft price.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR39 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 119.0 points this season, WR47. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 14% of simulated seasons. That is 8.7 a game over 14 remaining games. Ruled out this week, so this projection is for the games after it. Up 25 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
8.7 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 14%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Michael Pittman #85 in 1QB and #87 in Superflex, WR32 at his position. Age 28.
1QB
#85
WR32 · tier 21 · of 297
Superflex
#87
WR32 · tier 16 · of 303
- Last season 162.4 pts 9.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 97% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 24% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.09
pick 117.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.08
half of simulations take him by pick 116
Draft range
9.06 - 12.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,987 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.08 in 52% of simulations
Pick 116 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 11.05, where he is available in 26% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 10.08 52% · 11.05 26% · 12.08 5% · 13.05 2% · 14.08 1% · 15.05 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.12 and 11.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.06 | 58% |
| 10.07 | 55% |
| 10.08 | 52% |
| 10.09 | 49% |
| 10.10 | 46% |
| 10.11 | 43% |
| 10.12 | 40% |
| 11.01 | 37% |
| 11.02 | 34% |
| 11.03 | 31% |
| 11.04 | 29% |
| 11.05 | 26% |
| 11.06 | 24% |
| 11.07 | 22% |
| 11.08 | 20% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 468 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 540 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 5% | 525 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 6% | 550 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 6% | 581 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 6% | 570 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 6% | 587 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 6% | 624 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 6% | 560 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 6% | 594 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 6% | 565 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 4% | 444 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 4% | 420 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 3% | 347 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 3% | 324 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 2% | 245 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02 | 1% | 133 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9987 simulations in which Michael Pittman was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- KC Concepcion WR · CLE 3%
- Jordan Addison WR · MIN 3%
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 2%
- Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 2%
- KC Concepcion WR · CLE 2%
- Josh Downs WR · IND 2%
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Michael Pittman was selected in 9987 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.