JAX · Bye 7
Travis Hunter
LMD WR67 for Week 3 · 5.9 projected Half PPR points · WR59 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.9 points this week, WR67. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 6% · Top 24: 14% of simulated weeks. Up 33 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR67
130th by projected points
Rest of season
WR59
107th by projected points
Projected
5.9
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
6%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 14% at WR
Movement
↑ 33
WR100 in Week 2, WR67 now
- Draft / market prior
- Strong positive+4.86 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No recent stats
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Negative-1.64 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CLE | 3.2 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | @ DEN | 2.1 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | vs NE | 5.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 111.9 points this season, WR59. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 11% of simulated seasons. That is 5.9 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 40 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
5.9 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 11%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Travis Hunter #191 in 1QB and #196 in Superflex, WR82 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#191
WR82 · tier 42 · of 297
Superflex
#196
WR82 · tier 36 · of 303
- Last season 49.8 pts 7.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 41% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 18% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.06
pick 137.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.02
half of simulations take him by pick 134
Draft range
11.02 - 15.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,397 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.02 in 53% of simulations
Pick 134 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 13.11, where he is available in 22% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 12.02 53% · 13.11 22% · 14.02 21% · 15.11 7%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.06 and 12.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.12 | 59% |
| 12.01 | 56% |
| 12.02 | 53% |
| 12.03 | 50% |
| 12.04 | 47% |
| 12.05 | 44% |
| 12.06 | 41% |
| 12.07 | 38% |
| 12.08 | 35% |
| 12.09 | 33% |
| 12.10 | 30% |
| 12.11 | 27% |
| 12.12 | 25% |
| 13.01 | 23% |
| 13.02 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.02-11.04 | 10% | 1031 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.07 | 9% | 888 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.10 | 9% | 888 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-12.01 | 9% | 939 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.04 | 9% | 917 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.07 | 9% | 903 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.10 | 8% | 781 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-13.01 | 5% | 461 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.04 | <1% | 27 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.07 | <1% | 19 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.10 | <1% | 43 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-14.01 | <1% | 52 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.04 | <1% | 90 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.07 | <1% | 87 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.10 | 1% | 142 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-15.01 | 2% | 191 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 1% | 115 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9397 simulations in which Travis Hunter was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 3%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 3%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
- Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 2%
Usually taken just after
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 3%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 3%
- Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 3%
- Xavier Worthy WR · KC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Travis Hunter was selected in 9397 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.