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RB

SF · Bye 8 · Rookie

Kaelon Black

LMD RB42 for Week 3 · 6.6 projected Half PPR points · RB44 rest of season

Questionable

Regular season

Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 6.6 points this week, RB42. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 24% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 8 since Week 2.

Week 3

RB42

115th by projected points

Rest of season

RB44

134th by projected points

Projected

6.6

week 3, Half PPR

Top 12

9%

Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 24% at RB

Movement

↓ 8

RB34 in Week 2, RB42 now

Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All RB rankings · Projected points board

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 2 completed games Kaelon Black has averaged +1.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Kaelon Black, Half PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 @ LAR 2.3 7.5 +5.2
Wk 2 vs MIA 5.0 2.5 -2.5
Wk 3 vs ARI 6.6 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 96.0 points this season, RB44. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1% of simulated seasons. That is 6.5 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 4 since the Sept. 20 board.

Per game

6.5 / game

Over 15 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB

Market input

none

No market signal available.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Kaelon Black #138 in 1QB and #139 in Superflex, RB38 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 24.

1QB

#138

RB38 · tier 31 · of 297 · rookie 14 of 52

Superflex

#139

RB38 · tier 25 · of 303 · rookie 14 of 52

  • Draft capital Round 3, pick 90 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

12.04

pick 136.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

12.03

half of simulations take him by pick 135

Draft range

10.11 - 13.12

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 9,975 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams
Scoring Half PPR
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Dynasty also published: Rookie

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 12.03 in 52% of simulations

Pick 135 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 13.10, where he is available in 14% of simulations.

Slot 10's remaining turns: 12.03 52% · 13.10 14% · 14.03 8% · 15.10 <1%

The middle half of simulations take him between 11.05 and 13.02.

Kaelon Black still on the board
PickAvailable
12.01 57%
12.02 55%
12.03 52%
12.04 50%
12.05 47%
12.06 45%
12.07 42%
12.08 39%
12.09 37%
12.10 35%
12.11 33%
12.12 31%
13.01 29%
13.02 27%
13.03 25%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Kaelon Black was selected at each pick, 10.11-10.12 through 13.11-13.12. He goes earlier than this window in 10%, later in 10%, undrafted in <1%.
Draft position distribution for Kaelon Black
PickShare of simulationsCount
10.11-10.124%417 of 10000 simulations
11.01-11.025%459 of 10000 simulations
11.03-11.045%468 of 10000 simulations
11.05-11.065%489 of 10000 simulations
11.07-11.085%489 of 10000 simulations
11.09-11.105%501 of 10000 simulations
11.11-11.125%466 of 10000 simulations
12.01-12.025%480 of 10000 simulations
12.03-12.045%504 of 10000 simulations
12.05-12.065%506 of 10000 simulations
12.07-12.085%526 of 10000 simulations
12.09-12.104%436 of 10000 simulations
12.11-12.124%404 of 10000 simulations
13.01-13.024%401 of 10000 simulations
13.03-13.044%370 of 10000 simulations
13.05-13.064%355 of 10000 simulations
13.07-13.083%262 of 10000 simulations
13.09-13.102%249 of 10000 simulations
13.11-13.122%209 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 9975 simulations in which Kaelon Black was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Kaelon Black was selected in 9975 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
September 17, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
rank

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.