PHI · Bye 10
Saquon Barkley
LMD RB15 for Week 3 · 12.4 projected Half PPR points · RB16 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 12.4 points this week, RB15. Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 30% · Top 24: 53% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 6 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB15
20th by projected points
Rest of season
RB16
28th by projected points
Projected
12.4
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
30%
Top 3: 9% · Top 24: 53% at RB
Movement
↓ 6
RB9 in Week 2, RB15 now
- Draft / market prior
- Strong positive+3.37 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Strong negative-2.97 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.90 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Saquon Barkley receives early injury scare in Eagles' win over Titans
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Saquon Barkley set for MRI
USA TODAY ·
-
Jeffery Simmons hints at the Titans’ plan for stopping Saquon Barkley
cumberlink.com ·
-
Sonny Styles Bulldozing Saquon Barkley Put the NFL on Notice
yardbarker.com ·
-
Saquon Barkley efficient in Eagles season opener, but questions remain
cumberlink.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Saquon Barkley by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Saquon Barkley has averaged -7.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs WAS | 13.6 | 8.5 | -5.1 |
| Wk 2 | @ TEN | 12.9 | 2.5 | -10.4 |
| Wk 3 | @ CHI | 12.4 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB9. For the rest of the season LMD has him 7 spots lower, at RB16.
Preseason market: RB9 · ADP 16.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB16 −7
LMD has him 7 spots lower than his RB9 draft price.
Week 3
RB15 −6
LMD has him 6 spots lower than his RB9 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB9 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 171.4 points this season, RB16. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 17% · Top 24: 81% of simulated seasons. That is 12.4 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 8 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
12.4 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 17% · Top 24: 81%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Saquon Barkley #43 in 1QB and #54 in Superflex, RB16 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#43
RB16 · tier 13 · of 297
Superflex
#54
RB16 · tier 11 · of 303
- Last season 213.8 pts 13.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 22.0 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 13% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
2.06
pick 17.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
2.06
half of simulations take him by pick 18
Draft range
2.01 - 2.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 2.06 in 57% of simulations
Pick 18 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 3.07, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 2.06 57% · 3.07 <1% · 4.06 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.04 and 2.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 2.04 | 76% |
| 2.05 | 67% |
| 2.06 | 57% |
| 2.07 | 45% |
| 2.08 | 33% |
| 2.09 | 22% |
| 2.10 | 13% |
| 2.11 | 8% |
| 2.12 | 5% |
| 3.01 | 3% |
| 3.02 | 2% |
| 3.03 | 1% |
| 3.04 | <1% |
| 3.05 | <1% |
| 3.06 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.01 | 4% | 426 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.02 | 6% | 568 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.03 | 7% | 688 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.04 | 9% | 862 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.05 | 11% | 1059 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.06 | 12% | 1155 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.07 | 12% | 1221 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.08 | 11% | 1122 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.09 | 9% | 856 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10 | 5% | 522 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Saquon Barkley was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- A.J. Brown WR · NE 10%
- Chase Brown RB · CIN 9%
- Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 9%
- CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 7%
Usually taken just after
- A.J. Brown WR · NE 9%
- Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 7%
- Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 7%
- Chase Brown RB · CIN 7%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Saquon Barkley was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.