LV · Bye 13 · Rookie
Mike Washington Jr.
LMD RB59 for Week 3 · 3.8 projected Half PPR points · RB66 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 3.8 points this week, RB59. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 8% of simulated weeks. Down 3 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB59
206th by projected points
Rest of season
RB66
234th by projected points
Projected
3.8
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
1%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 8% at RB
Movement
↓ 3
RB56 in Week 2, RB59 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.47 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.24 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.09 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
AFC Notes: Kirk Cousins, Mike Washington Jr., Broncos, Raiders
yardbarker.com ·
-
Mike Washington Jr. praised by head coach
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Can Ashton Jeanty Hold Off Mike Washington After Greg Cosell’s Surprising Comparison?
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Klint Kubiak plays it close to the chest on Ashton Jeanty, praises Mike Washington Jr.
yardbarker.com ·
-
Mike Washington Jr. showing off ‘phenomenal’ Raiders potential after Ashton Jeanty injury
nypost.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Mike Washington Jr. by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Mike Washington Jr. has averaged -1.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs MIA | 4.0 | 4.1 | +0.1 |
| Wk 2 | @ LAC | 2.9 | 0.7 | -2.2 |
| Wk 3 | @ NO | 3.8 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB49. For the rest of the season LMD has him 17 spots lower, at RB66.
Preseason market: RB49 · ADP 154.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB66 −17
LMD has him 17 spots lower than his RB49 draft price.
Week 3
RB59 −10
LMD has him 10 spots lower than his RB49 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB49 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 58.7 points this season, RB66. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 3.8 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 9 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
3.8 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Mike Washington Jr. #158 in 1QB and #163 in Superflex, RB46 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 23.
1QB
#158
RB46 · tier 36 · of 297 · rookie 16 of 52
Superflex
#163
RB46 · tier 30 · of 303 · rookie 16 of 52
- Draft capital Round 4, pick 122 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.06
pick 174.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.07
half of simulations take him by pick 175
Draft range
15.01 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 2,764 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.07 in 86% of simulations
Pick 175 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.03 and 15.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.05 | 91% |
| 15.06 | 89% |
| 15.07 | 86% |
| 15.08 | 84% |
| 15.09 | 82% |
| 15.10 | 79% |
| 15.11 | 77% |
| 15.12 | 75% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.01 | 2% | 160 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 2% | 156 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 210 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 216 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 206 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 229 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 240 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 238 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 219 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 232 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 245 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 2764 simulations in which Mike Washington Jr. was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Jalen Coker WR · CAR 3%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 3%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jalen Coker WR · CAR 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 2%
- Alvin Kamara RB · NO 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Mike Washington Jr. was selected in 2764 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.