SEA · Bye 11
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
LMD WR1 for Week 3 · 16.5 projected Half PPR points · WR1 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 16.5 points this week, WR1. Top 3: 18% · Top 12: 45% · Top 24: 63% of simulated weeks.
Week 3
WR1
6th by projected points
Rest of season
WR1
7th by projected points
Projected
16.5
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
45%
Top 3: 18% · Top 24: 63% at WR
Movement
—
Unchanged: WR1 in Week 2
- Draft / market prior
- Strong negative-2.41 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Strong positive+2.75 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.21 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Seahawks ride Jaxon Smith-Njigba for club-record 12th straight win
kdhnews.com ·
-
Drew Lock connects for 3 TDs with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks roll past Cardinals 31-7
mymotherlode.com ·
-
Seattle Seahawks offense makes major statement without Sam Darnold as Jaxon Smith-Njigba sets new career high in dominant win
yardbarker.com ·
-
NFC Notes: Drew Lock, Sean McVay, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rams, Seahawks
yardbarker.com ·
-
“Was Taken Away From Me”: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Reveals Hardest Moment in Football Career Before Super Bowl Win
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jaxon Smith-Njigba by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged +15.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NE | 14.6 | 22.2 | +7.6 |
| Wk 2 | @ ARI | 15.5 | 38.0 | +22.5 |
| Wk 3 | @ WAS | 16.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR3. For the rest of the season LMD has him 2 spots higher, at WR1.
Preseason market: WR3 · ADP 6.0
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR1 +2
LMD has him 2 spots higher than his WR3 draft price.
Week 3
WR1 +2
LMD has him 2 spots higher than his WR3 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR3 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 241.5 points this season, WR1. Top 3: 65% · Top 12: 96% · Top 24: 100% of simulated seasons. That is 16.1 a game over 15 remaining games.
Per game
16.1 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 65% · Top 12: 96% · Top 24: 100%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jaxon Smith-Njigba #4 in 1QB and #8 in Superflex, WR2 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#4
WR2 · tier 3 · of 297
Superflex
#8
WR2 · tier 3 · of 303
- Last season 300.4 pts 17.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 8.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 29% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
1.07
pick 7.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
1.08
half of simulations take him by pick 8
Draft range
1.01 - 2.01
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 1.08 in 54% of simulations
Pick 8 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 2.05, where he is available in 1% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 1.08 54% · 2.05 1% · 3.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 1.03 and 1.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 1.06 | 65% |
| 1.07 | 60% |
| 1.08 | 54% |
| 1.09 | 47% |
| 1.10 | 38% |
| 1.11 | 28% |
| 1.12 | 19% |
| 2.01 | 11% |
| 2.02 | 7% |
| 2.03 | 4% |
| 2.04 | 2% |
| 2.05 | 1% |
| 2.06 | <1% |
| 2.07 | <1% |
| 2.08 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 1.01 | 15% | 1455 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.02 | 7% | 723 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.03 | 4% | 432 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.04 | 3% | 311 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.05 | 5% | 540 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.06 | 6% | 550 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.07 | 6% | 589 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.08 | 7% | 703 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.09 | 9% | 884 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.10 | 11% | 1063 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.11 | 9% | 887 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.12 | 8% | 757 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.01 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Jaxon Smith-Njigba was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- James Cook RB · BUF 11%
- Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 8%
- Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 8%
- Derrick Henry RB · BAL 6%
Usually taken just after
- Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 10%
- James Cook RB · BUF 9%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 7%
- Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 6%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.