DAL · Bye 14
George Pickens
LMD WR15 for Week 3 · 10.0 projected Half PPR points · WR22 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 10.0 points this week, WR15. Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 18% · Top 24: 34% of simulated weeks. Down 3 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR15
43rd by projected points
Rest of season
WR22
52nd by projected points
Projected
10.0
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
18%
Top 3: 5% · Top 24: 34% at WR
Movement
↓ 3
WR12 in Week 2, WR15 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.15 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.89 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.32 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Brian Schottenheimer Has Strong Response To George Pickens Concerns
yardbarker.com ·
-
Jerry Jones Makes Feelings Clear On George Pickens After Costly Cowboys Drops
yardbarker.com ·
-
Brian Schottenheimer Responds To Viral Theory That George Pickens Is Tipping Cowboys Plays
yardbarker.com ·
-
Cowboys' George Pickens is still confident about big-play ability after season-opening drops
dallasnews.com ·
-
Cowboys' Dak Prescott gives candid take on George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb problems
Sporting News ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to George Pickens by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games George Pickens has averaged -4.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ NYG | 10.5 | 4.3 | -6.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs WAS | 9.6 | 7.0 | -2.6 |
| Wk 3 | vs BAL | 10.0 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR9. For the rest of the season LMD has him 13 spots lower, at WR22.
Preseason market: WR9 · ADP 20.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR22 −13
LMD has him 13 spots lower than his WR9 draft price.
Week 3
WR15 −6
LMD has him 6 spots lower than his WR9 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR9 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 145.6 points this season, WR22. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 15% · Top 24: 45% of simulated seasons. That is 9.9 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 10 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
9.9 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 15% · Top 24: 45%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has George Pickens #20 in 1QB and #27 in Superflex, WR6 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#20
WR6 · tier 8 · of 297
Superflex
#27
WR6 · tier 7 · of 303
- Last season 245.4 pts 14.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 95% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 24% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.03
pick 27.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.04
half of simulations take him by pick 28
Draft range
2.05 - 4.01
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.04 in 52% of simulations
Pick 28 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 4.09, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 4's remaining turns: 3.04 52% · 4.09 <1% · 5.04 <1% · 6.09 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.10 and 3.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.02 | 61% |
| 3.03 | 57% |
| 3.04 | 52% |
| 3.05 | 47% |
| 3.06 | 42% |
| 3.07 | 36% |
| 3.08 | 31% |
| 3.09 | 27% |
| 3.10 | 23% |
| 3.11 | 19% |
| 3.12 | 15% |
| 4.01 | 12% |
| 4.02 | 9% |
| 4.03 | 7% |
| 4.04 | 5% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.05 | 2% | 210 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.06 | 3% | 260 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.07 | 3% | 316 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.08 | 3% | 296 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.09 | 3% | 301 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10 | 4% | 351 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11 | 3% | 334 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 4% | 386 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 4% | 420 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 5% | 459 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 5% | 488 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 5% | 498 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 5% | 515 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 5% | 542 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 5% | 494 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 4% | 438 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 4% | 449 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 4% | 388 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 4% | 365 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 3% | 321 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 3% | 256 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which George Pickens was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Nico Collins WR · HOU 5%
- Javonte Williams RB · DAL 4%
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 4%
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 4%
Usually taken just after
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 5%
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 5%
- Malik Nabers WR · NYG 5%
- Kenneth Walker III RB · KC 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
George Pickens was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.