CHI · Bye 10
Colston Loveland
LMD TE20 for Week 3 · 5.7 projected Half PPR points · TE24 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.7 points this week, TE20. Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 41% of simulated weeks. Down 16 since Week 2.
Week 3
TE20
133rd by projected points
Rest of season
TE24
168th by projected points
Projected
5.7
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
21%
Top 3: 5% · Top 24: 41% at TE
Movement
↓ 16
TE4 in Week 2, TE20 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+1.33 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-1.62 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.52 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Bears’ Colston Loveland Drops True Feelings on Loss to Vikings
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Bears tight end Colston Loveland was expected to be their top target after a year when he led in catches and yards but was shut out on Sunday.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Colston Loveland's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 58.2 to 63.1 over the last 7 days.
-
Bears TE Colston Loveland looks back on ‘crazy’ Packers game
yardbarker.com ·
-
5 bold predictions for the Chicago Bears’ offense, including a Top-3 ranking for Colston Loveland and a league-high rushing offense
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Colston Loveland by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Colston Loveland has averaged -8.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CAR | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Wk 2 | vs MIN | 8.9 | 0.8 | -8.1 |
| Wk 3 | vs PHI | 5.7 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE3. For the rest of the season LMD has him 21 spots lower, at TE24.
Preseason market: TE3 · ADP 60.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE24 −21
LMD has him 21 spots lower than his TE3 draft price.
Week 3
TE20 −17
LMD has him 17 spots lower than his TE3 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE3 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 77.5 points this season, TE24. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 5% · Top 24: 45% of simulated seasons. That is 5.7 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 21 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
5.7 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 5% · Top 24: 45%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Colston Loveland #42 in 1QB and #45 in Superflex, TE5 at his position. Age 22.
1QB
#42
TE5 · tier 13 · of 297
Superflex
#45
TE5 · tier 10 · of 303
- Last season 136.1 pts 8.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 94% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
6.02
pick 62.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
6.03
half of simulations take him by pick 63
Draft range
5.03 - 6.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 6.03 in 51% of simulations
Pick 63 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 7.10, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 6.03 51% · 7.10 <1% · 8.03 <1% · 9.10 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.09 and 6.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 6.01 | 61% |
| 6.02 | 56% |
| 6.03 | 51% |
| 6.04 | 46% |
| 6.05 | 40% |
| 6.06 | 35% |
| 6.07 | 30% |
| 6.08 | 26% |
| 6.09 | 22% |
| 6.10 | 18% |
| 6.11 | 14% |
| 6.12 | 11% |
| 7.01 | 8% |
| 7.02 | 6% |
| 7.03 | 5% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 5.03 | 2% | 167 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04 | 2% | 209 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05 | 2% | 217 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06 | 2% | 240 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07 | 3% | 313 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08 | 3% | 321 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09 | 3% | 338 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10 | 4% | 390 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11 | 4% | 432 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12 | 5% | 458 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01 | 5% | 461 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.02 | 5% | 518 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03 | 5% | 528 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.04 | 5% | 541 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.06 | 5% | 482 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07 | 4% | 417 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08 | 4% | 436 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09 | 4% | 380 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10 | 4% | 360 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11 | 3% | 333 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12 | 3% | 260 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Colston Loveland was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- David Montgomery RB · HOU 4%
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 4%
- Rome Odunze WR · CHI 3%
- Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 3%
Usually taken just after
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 4%
- David Montgomery RB · HOU 4%
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 3%
- Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Colston Loveland was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.