WAS · Bye 7
Stefon Diggs
LMD WR22 for Week 3 · 9.5 projected Half PPR points · WR18 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 9.5 points this week, WR22. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 17% · Top 24: 33% of simulated weeks. Up 12 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR22
55th by projected points
Rest of season
WR18
43rd by projected points
Projected
9.5
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
17%
Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 33% at WR
Movement
↑ 12
WR34 in Week 2, WR22 now
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.77 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.88 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.32 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Commanders vs. Cowboys Player of the Game: WR Stefon Diggs
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Commanders WR Stefon Diggs breaks silence on crucial late-game penalty
bundle.app ·
-
Stefon Diggs Risks Punishment, Refs Face Backlash Over Controversial Calls & More From NFL’s All 13 Sunday Games
yardbarker.com ·
-
Stefon Diggs catches TD pass in Week 1
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Stefon Diggs’ Touchdown Celebration Was 'So Disgusting' To The NFL That They Completely Cut It Out Of His Highlight
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Stefon Diggs by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Stefon Diggs has averaged +11.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PHI | 4.9 | 13.5 | +8.6 |
| Wk 2 | @ DAL | 5.8 | 19.2 | +13.4 |
| Wk 3 | vs SEA | 9.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR48. For the rest of the season LMD has him 30 spots higher, at WR18.
Preseason market: WR48 · ADP 98.7
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR18 +30
LMD has him 30 spots higher than his WR48 draft price.
Week 3
WR22 +26
LMD has him 26 spots higher than his WR48 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR48 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 150.0 points this season, WR18. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 20% · Top 24: 52% of simulated seasons. That is 9.9 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 18 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
9.9 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 20% · Top 24: 52%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Stefon Diggs #129 in 1QB and #132 in Superflex, WR54 at his position. Age 32.
1QB
#129
WR54 · tier 29 · of 297
Superflex
#132
WR54 · tier 23 · of 303
- Last season 167.8 pts 9.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 84% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 24% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.02
pick 134.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.10
half of simulations take him by pick 130
Draft range
10.10 - 14.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,702 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.10 in 54% of simulations
Pick 130 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 12.03, where he is available in 40% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 11.10 54% · 12.03 40% · 13.10 16% · 14.03 15% · 15.10 4%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.03 and 12.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.08 | 60% |
| 11.09 | 57% |
| 11.10 | 54% |
| 11.11 | 51% |
| 11.12 | 49% |
| 12.01 | 46% |
| 12.02 | 43% |
| 12.03 | 40% |
| 12.04 | 37% |
| 12.05 | 35% |
| 12.06 | 31% |
| 12.07 | 29% |
| 12.08 | 26% |
| 12.09 | 24% |
| 12.10 | 22% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.10-10.12 | 8% | 832 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.03 | 10% | 1037 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.06 | 9% | 899 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.09 | 10% | 965 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.12 | 8% | 830 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.03 | 8% | 844 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.06 | 8% | 846 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.09 | 7% | 683 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.12 | 6% | 566 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.03 | <1% | 14 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.06 | <1% | 27 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.09 | <1% | 28 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.12 | <1% | 34 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.03 | <1% | 63 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.06 | <1% | 86 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.09 | <1% | 95 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | <1% | 41 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9702 simulations in which Stefon Diggs was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Josh Downs WR · IND 3%
- De'Zhaun Stribling WR · SF 2%
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
- Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 2%
Usually taken just after
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 3%
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 3%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
- Woody Marks RB · HOU 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Stefon Diggs was selected in 9702 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.