NYJ · Bye 13
Breece Hall
LMD RB11 for Week 3 · 14.0 projected Half PPR points · RB11 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 14.0 points this week, RB11. Top 3: 10% · Top 12: 38% · Top 24: 64% of simulated weeks. Up 1 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB11
14th by projected points
Rest of season
RB11
14th by projected points
Projected
14.0
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
38%
Top 3: 10% · Top 24: 64% at RB
Movement
↑ 1
RB12 in Week 2, RB11 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.44 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.13 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.08 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Breece Hall didn't offer excuses after Jets' Week 2 loss to Packers
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Jets vs. Packers prediction, picks: Breece Hall to run wild in upset
nypost.com ·
-
New York Jets running back Breece Hall runs the ball against Packers linebacker De'Vondre Campbell in 2022.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Bold running back predictions for NFL Week 2: Kenneth Walker & Breece Hall dominate
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Jets lean on Breece Hall as Packers face backfield questions
nypost.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Breece Hall by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Breece Hall has averaged +4.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ TEN | 11.0 | 18.8 | +7.8 |
| Wk 2 | vs GB | 11.5 | 11.7 | +0.2 |
| Wk 3 | @ DET | 14.0 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB16. For the rest of the season LMD has him 5 spots higher, at RB11.
Preseason market: RB16 · ADP 31.0
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB11 +5
LMD has him 5 spots higher than his RB16 draft price.
Week 3
RB11 +5
LMD has him 5 spots higher than his RB16 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB16 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 212.7 points this season, RB11. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 64% · Top 24: 98% of simulated seasons. That is 14.2 a game over 15 remaining games.
Per game
14.2 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 64% · Top 24: 98%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Breece Hall #33 in 1QB and #43 in Superflex, RB13 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#33
RB13 · tier 12 · of 297
Superflex
#43
RB13 · tier 10 · of 303
- Last season 189.7 pts 11.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 95% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 18.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 13% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.07
pick 31.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.07
half of simulations take him by pick 31
Draft range
2.06 - 4.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.07 in 53% of simulations
Pick 31 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 4.06, where he is available in 15% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 3.07 53% · 4.06 15% · 5.07 <1% · 6.06 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.01 and 4.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.05 | 63% |
| 3.06 | 58% |
| 3.07 | 53% |
| 3.08 | 49% |
| 3.09 | 45% |
| 3.10 | 40% |
| 3.11 | 37% |
| 3.12 | 33% |
| 4.01 | 29% |
| 4.02 | 26% |
| 4.03 | 23% |
| 4.04 | 20% |
| 4.05 | 17% |
| 4.06 | 15% |
| 4.07 | 13% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.06-2.07 | 3% | 279 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.08-2.09 | 4% | 393 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10-2.11 | 4% | 431 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12-3.01 | 6% | 554 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02-3.03 | 7% | 724 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04-3.05 | 9% | 915 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06-3.07 | 9% | 905 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08-3.09 | 8% | 838 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10-3.11 | 8% | 788 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12-4.01 | 7% | 671 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02-4.03 | 6% | 612 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04-4.05 | 5% | 477 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06-4.07 | 4% | 442 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 2% | 191 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Breece Hall was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 4%
- Javonte Williams RB · DAL 4%
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 4%
- Malik Nabers WR · NYG 4%
Usually taken just after
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 4%
- Javonte Williams RB · DAL 4%
- Malik Nabers WR · NYG 4%
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Breece Hall was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.