KC · Bye 5
Rashee Rice
LMD WR25 for Week 3 · 9.4 projected Half PPR points · WR27 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 9.4 points this week, WR25. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 16% · Top 24: 31% of simulated weeks. Down 8 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR25
59th by projected points
Rest of season
WR27
61st by projected points
Projected
9.4
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
16%
Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 31% at WR
Movement
↓ 8
WR17 in Week 2, WR25 now
- Draft / market prior
- Strong positive+2.07 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-1.02 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.27 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
ADP UPDATE
Rashee Rice's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 17.3 to 22.2 over the last 7 days.
-
Chiefs WR Rashee Rice Responds to Eric Bieniemy’s ‘Hardheaded’ Comment
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Full practice for Rashee Rice
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Updated Rashee Rice Fantasy Outlook 2026: Can the Chiefs Star Finish As a WR1?
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Rashee Rice by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Rashee Rice has averaged +0.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DEN | 10.1 | 8.9 | -1.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs IND | 8.4 | 10.3 | +1.9 |
| Wk 3 | @ MIA | 9.4 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 136.8 points this season, WR27. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 32% of simulated seasons. That is 9.4 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 10 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
9.4 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 32%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Rashee Rice #108 in 1QB and #111 in Superflex, WR43 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#108
WR43 · tier 25 · of 297
Superflex
#111
WR43 · tier 20 · of 303
- Last season 123.6 pts 15.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 49% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 8.7 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 26% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.04
pick 28.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.05
half of simulations take him by pick 29
Draft range
2.05 - 4.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.05 in 52% of simulations
Pick 29 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 4.08, where he is available in 2% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 3.05 52% · 4.08 2% · 5.05 <1% · 6.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.11 and 3.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.03 | 62% |
| 3.04 | 57% |
| 3.05 | 52% |
| 3.06 | 47% |
| 3.07 | 42% |
| 3.08 | 37% |
| 3.09 | 32% |
| 3.10 | 27% |
| 3.11 | 23% |
| 3.12 | 19% |
| 4.01 | 15% |
| 4.02 | 12% |
| 4.03 | 10% |
| 4.04 | 8% |
| 4.05 | 6% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.05 | 2% | 197 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.06 | 2% | 232 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.07 | 3% | 252 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.08 | 3% | 298 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.09 | 3% | 288 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10 | 3% | 312 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11 | 3% | 334 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 3% | 329 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 4% | 367 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 4% | 405 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 5% | 468 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 5% | 467 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 5% | 513 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 5% | 530 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 5% | 519 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 5% | 462 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 4% | 423 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 4% | 377 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 4% | 390 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 3% | 288 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 2% | 245 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Rashee Rice was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Malik Nabers WR · NYG 4%
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 4%
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 4%
- Javonte Williams RB · DAL 4%
Usually taken just after
- Malik Nabers WR · NYG 5%
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 5%
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 5%
- Javonte Williams RB · DAL 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Rashee Rice was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.