DEN · Bye 10
Jaylen Waddle
LMD WR18 for Week 3 · 9.8 projected Half PPR points · WR20 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 9.8 points this week, WR18. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 18% · Top 24: 33% of simulated weeks. Up 10 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR18
48th by projected points
Rest of season
WR20
47th by projected points
Projected
9.8
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
18%
Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 33% at WR
Movement
↑ 10
WR28 in Week 2, WR18 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.41 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.33 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.15 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Jaylen Waddle helps Broncos earn comeback win over Jaguars
sportsnet.ca ·
-
Jaylen Waddle rocks amazing penguin cleats ahead of Broncos debut on 'MNF'
Yahoo Sports ·
-
August 22, 2026, Denver, Colorado, USA: Broncos WR JAYLEN WADDLE starts his run to the sidelines after a catch during the 1st. Half at Empower Field at Mile High Friday evening. Packers beat the Bronc
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Broncos WR not named Jaylen Waddle or Courtland Sutton predicted to have big 2026 season
Sporting News ·
-
Jaylen Waddle turns on the jets vs. the Packers.
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jaylen Waddle by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Jaylen Waddle has averaged +1.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ KC | 7.8 | 0.7 | -7.1 |
| Wk 2 | vs JAX | 7.0 | 17.8 | +10.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAR | 9.8 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR25. For the rest of the season LMD has him 5 spots higher, at WR20.
Preseason market: WR25 · ADP 45.7
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR20 +5
LMD has him 5 spots higher than his WR25 draft price.
Week 3
WR18 +7
LMD has him 7 spots higher than his WR25 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR25 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 147.5 points this season, WR20. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 17% · Top 24: 48% of simulated seasons. That is 10.0 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 7 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
10.0 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 17% · Top 24: 48%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jaylen Waddle #72 in 1QB and #75 in Superflex, WR26 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#72
WR26 · tier 18 · of 297
Superflex
#75
WR26 · tier 14 · of 303
- Last season 162.1 pts 10.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 90% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 21% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.12
pick 47.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.12
half of simulations take him by pick 48
Draft range
4.02 - 5.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.12 in 54% of simulations
Pick 48 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 5.01, where he is available in 48% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 4.12 54% · 5.01 48% · 6.12 <1% · 7.01 <1% · 8.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.08 and 5.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.10 | 66% |
| 4.11 | 60% |
| 4.12 | 54% |
| 5.01 | 48% |
| 5.02 | 42% |
| 5.03 | 37% |
| 5.04 | 31% |
| 5.05 | 26% |
| 5.06 | 21% |
| 5.07 | 17% |
| 5.08 | 13% |
| 5.09 | 10% |
| 5.10 | 8% |
| 5.11 | 6% |
| 5.12 | 5% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.02 | 2% | 183 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 2% | 210 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 3% | 255 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 3% | 289 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 3% | 329 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 4% | 395 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 5% | 469 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 6% | 560 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 6% | 600 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12 | 6% | 596 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01 | 6% | 570 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02 | 5% | 540 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03 | 6% | 563 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04 | 5% | 525 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05 | 5% | 480 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06 | 4% | 441 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07 | 4% | 362 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08 | 3% | 323 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09 | 2% | 240 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Jaylen Waddle was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 5%
- Davante Adams WR · LAR 4%
- Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 4%
- Luther Burden III WR · CHI 4%
Usually taken just after
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
- D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 4%
- Luther Burden III WR · CHI 4%
- DJ Moore WR · BUF 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jaylen Waddle was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.