CIN · Bye 6
Chase Brown
LMD RB10 for Week 3 · 14.6 projected Half PPR points · RB10 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 14.6 points this week, RB10. Top 3: 11% · Top 12: 40% · Top 24: 66% of simulated weeks. Up 1 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB10
12th by projected points
Rest of season
RB10
12th by projected points
Projected
14.6
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
40%
Top 3: 11% · Top 24: 66% at RB
Movement
↑ 1
RB11 in Week 2, RB10 now
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.93 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.25 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.04 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Chase Brown gains 80 yards on ground in Week 2 against Texans
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Chase Brown productive in Week 1
USA TODAY ·
-
Chase Brown set for significant role
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Why the Bengals may choose not to extend DJ Turner, Dax Hill, or Chase Brown right now
bundle.app ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Chase Brown by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Chase Brown has averaged +1.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs TB | 11.8 | 16.3 | +4.5 |
| Wk 2 | @ HOU | 12.2 | 9.7 | -2.5 |
| Wk 3 | @ PIT | 14.6 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB8. For the rest of the season LMD has him 2 spots lower, at RB10.
Preseason market: RB8 · ADP 13.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB10 −2
LMD has him 2 spots lower than his RB8 draft price.
Week 3
RB10 −2
LMD has him 2 spots lower than his RB8 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB8 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 222.0 points this season, RB10. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 72% · Top 24: 99% of simulated seasons. That is 14.8 a game over 15 remaining games.
Per game
14.8 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 72% · Top 24: 99%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Chase Brown #37 in 1QB and #47 in Superflex, RB15 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#37
RB15 · tier 12 · of 297
Superflex
#47
RB15 · tier 10 · of 303
- Last season 248.1 pts 14.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 15.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 11% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
2.03
pick 15.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
2.03
half of simulations take him by pick 15
Draft range
1.12 - 2.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 2.03 in 59% of simulations
Pick 15 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 3.10, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 2.03 59% · 3.10 <1% · 4.03 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.01 and 2.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 2.01 | 82% |
| 2.02 | 71% |
| 2.03 | 59% |
| 2.04 | 46% |
| 2.05 | 35% |
| 2.06 | 26% |
| 2.07 | 17% |
| 2.08 | 12% |
| 2.09 | 7% |
| 2.10 | 5% |
| 2.11 | 3% |
| 2.12 | 2% |
| 3.01 | 1% |
| 3.02 | 1% |
| 3.03 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 1.11 | 4% | 446 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.12 | 8% | 787 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.01 | 11% | 1102 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.02 | 13% | 1274 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.03 | 13% | 1270 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.04 | 11% | 1080 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.05 | 10% | 962 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.06 | 8% | 822 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.07 | 6% | 559 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.08 | 4% | 430 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Chase Brown was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 11%
- Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 10%
- A.J. Brown WR · NE 8%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 7%
Usually taken just after
- Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 11%
- CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 10%
- A.J. Brown WR · NE 9%
- Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 9%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Chase Brown was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.