NFL · 2026 Week 1

2026 Week 1 Half PPR TE Rankings

Final pre-kickoff board · published September 9, 2026, 18:40 UTC · first kickoff September 10, 2026, 00:20 UTC

Half PPR, 1QB · 42 players projected · updated September 9, 2026

Week 1 starts from preseason projections and draft position, with current availability and market signals layered in.

How these rankings work

How these rankings are built

We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.

We then update those expectations for Week 1 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.

We then simulate the week 4,000 times and rank players by the projected fantasy points those simulations produce.

This board is priced in Half PPR. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.

What the percentages mean

For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.

Top 3: how often he finishes among the top three at his position
Top 12: how often he finishes in the top 12
Top 24: how often he finishes in the top 24

A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.

What stood out in Week 1

42 TEs ranked for Week 1. Brock Bowers leads at 10.9 projected points.

Tier break

1.9 projected points separate TE2 Trey McBride from TE3 Colston Loveland.

Biggest differences from the draft market

Ahead

Mark AndrewsTE10Sportsbooks pricing him above our baselineTop 3: 10% · Top 12: 33% · Top 24: 63% +4 vs. TE14

Behind

Kenyon SadiqTE29Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 2% · Top 12: 12% · Top 24: 26% -10 vs. TE19
Dawson KnoxTE37Our projection is lower than the outside forecast -10 vs. TE27
David NjokuTE32Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 2% · Top 12: 12% · Top 24: 24% -6 vs. TE26

2026 Week 1 Half PPR TE Rankings -- Half PPR scoring: projected fantasy points and the share of simulated weeks finishing top 3, top 12 and top 24 at the position. From our own statistical and market model, not analyst consensus.
#	Pos	Player	Pos rank	Proj	Outcome profile	Top 3	Top 12	Top 24
1	TE	Brock BowersLV Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 30% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 13%. Top 3: 30%Top 12: 62%Top 24: 87%	TE1	10.9	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 30% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 13%.	30%	62%	87%
2	TE	Trey McBrideARI Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 29% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 13%. Top 3: 29%Top 12: 61%Top 24: 87%	TE2	10.9	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 29% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 13%.	29%	61%	87%
3	TE	Colston LovelandCHI Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 18%. Top 3: 21%Top 12: 52%Top 24: 82%	TE3	9.0	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 18%.	21%	52%	82%
4	TE	Tyler WarrenINDQQuestionable Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 26%. Top 3: 20%Top 12: 47%Top 24: 74%	TE4	8.4	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 26%.	20%	47%	74%
5	TE	Kyle PittsATL Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 24%. Top 3: 15%Top 12: 44%Top 24: 76%	TE5	7.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 24%.	15%	44%	76%
6	TE	Sam LaPortaDETQQuestionable Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 35%. Top 3: 13%Top 12: 37%Top 24: 65%	TE6	6.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 35%.	13%	37%	65%
7	TE	Harold Fannin Jr.CLE Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 31%. Top 3: 12%Top 12: 37%Top 24: 69%	TE7	6.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 31%.	12%	37%	69%
8	TE	George KittleSFQQuestionable Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 36%. Top 3: 12%Top 12: 36%Top 24: 64%	TE8	6.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 36%.	12%	36%	64%
9	TE	Dallas GoedertPHI Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 35%. Top 3: 11%Top 12: 35%Top 24: 65%	TE9	6.3	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 35%.	11%	35%	65%
10	TE	Mark AndrewsBAL Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 37%. Top 3: 10%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 63%	TE10	5.9	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 37%.	10%	33%	63%
11	TE	Jake FergusonDAL Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 40%. Top 3: 9%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 60%	TE11	5.7	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 40%.	9%	31%	60%
12	TE	Tucker KraftGBQQuestionable Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 42%. Top 3: 9%Top 12: 29%Top 24: 58%	TE12	5.7	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 42%.	9%	29%	58%
13	TE	Isaiah LikelyNYG Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 40%. Top 3: 8%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 60%	TE13	5.4	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 40%.	8%	28%	60%
14	TE	Dalton KincaidBUF Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 41%. Top 3: 7%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 59%	TE14	5.2	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 41%.	7%	27%	59%
15	TE	Travis KelceKC Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 43%. Top 3: 7%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 57%	TE15	5.1	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 43%.	7%	27%	57%
16	TE	Hunter HenryNE Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 46%. Top 3: 7%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 54%	TE16	5.0	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 46%.	7%	25%	54%
17	TE	T.J. HockensonMIN Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 47%. Top 3: 6%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 53%	TE17	4.7	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 47%.	6%	23%	53%
18	TE	Brenton StrangeJAX Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 47%. Top 3: 5%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 53%	TE18	4.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 47%.	5%	23%	53%
19	TE	Dalton SchultzHOU Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 48%. Top 3: 5%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 52%	TE19	4.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 48%.	5%	22%	52%
20	TE	Juwan JohnsonNO Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 50%. Top 3: 5%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 50%	TE20	4.4	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 50%.	5%	21%	50%
21	TE	Terrance FergusonLAR Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 58%. Top 3: 5%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 42%	TE21	4.1	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 58%.	5%	19%	42%
22	TE	Pat FreiermuthPIT Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 55%. Top 3: 4%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 45%	TE22	4.1	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 55%.	4%	19%	45%
23	TE	AJ BarnerSEA Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 60%. Top 3: 4%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 40%	TE23	3.8	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 60%.	4%	17%	40%
24	TE	Greg DulcichMIA Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 59%. Top 3: 3%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 41%	TE24	3.7	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 59%.	3%	15%	41%
25	TE	Gunnar HelmTEN Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 62%. Top 3: 3%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 38%	TE25	3.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 62%.	3%	16%	38%
26	TE	Chig OkonkwoWAS Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 59%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 41%	TE26	3.5	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 59%.	2%	13%	41%
27	TE	Mike GesickiCIN Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 70%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 30%	TE27	3.1	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 70%.	2%	12%	30%
28	TE	Cade OttonTB Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 69%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 31%	TE28	3.0	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 69%.	2%	11%	31%
29	TE	Kenyon SadiqNYJQQuestionable Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 74%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 26%	TE29	2.8	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 74%.	2%	12%	26%
30	TE	Darren WallerCAR Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 75%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 25%	TE30	2.8	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 75%.	2%	12%	25%
31	TE	Michael MayerLV Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 73%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 27%	TE31	2.8	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 73%.	2%	10%	27%
32	TE	David NjokuLAC Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 76%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 24%	TE32	2.8	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 76%.	2%	12%	24%
33	TE	Mason TaylorNYJ Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 74%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 26%	TE33	2.7	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 74%.	2%	9%	26%
34	TE	Darnell WashingtonPIT Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 76%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 24%	TE34	2.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 76%.	1%	10%	24%
35	TE	Colby ParkinsonLAR Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 77%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 23%	TE35	2.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 77%.	1%	10%	23%
36	TE	Evan EngramDEN Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 81%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 19%	TE36	2.4	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 81%.	1%	7%	19%
37	TE	Dawson KnoxBUF Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 80%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 20%	TE37	2.4	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 80%.	1%	8%	20%
38	TE	Cole KmetCHI Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 83%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 17%	TE38	2.2	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 83%.	1%	7%	17%
39	TE	Oronde Gadsden IILAC Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 85%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 15%	TE39	2.1	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 85%.	1%	8%	15%
40	TE	Charlie KolarLAC Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Top 3: 0%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 13%	TE40	1.9	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%.	0%	6%	13%
41	TE	Tommy TrembleCAR Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 13%	TE41	1.9	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%.	1%	5%	13%
42	TE	Tyler HigbeeLAR Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 87%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 13%	TE42	1.9	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 87%.	1%	6%	13%

How these are made

This board was built from draft position for 100%, an outside projection for 64%, sportsbook props for 30%, an official status for 85%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Half PPR, 1QB.

Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured September 9, 2026 18:39 UTC. Model rankings-v1.3.0, board captured 2026-09-09.

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); Polymarket (prediction-market prices); The Odds API (player props).

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