MIN · Bye 6
Aaron Jones
LMD RB29 for Week 3 · 9.4 projected Half PPR points · RB29 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 9.4 points this week, RB29. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 17% · Top 24: 41% of simulated weeks. Down 1 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB29
56th by projected points
Rest of season
RB29
70th by projected points
Projected
9.4
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
17%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 41% at RB
Movement
↓ 1
RB28 in Week 2, RB29 now
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-1.76 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.43 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.81 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Aaron Jones had a perfect response to the hit that sent his helmet flying
Yahoo Sports ·
-
How veteran Aaron Jones is making sure the Vikings are ready for Chicago
brainerddispatch.com ·
-
For Packers-turned-Vikings running back Aaron Jones, first touchdown against his former team delivered validation
channel3000.com ·
-
Former Packer Aaron Jones leads Minnesota’s comeback win over Green Bay
kvia.com ·
-
Packers vs Vikings: Kickoff Time, TV Channel Details, Aaron Jones Revenge, And Score Prediction
sundayguardianlive.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Aaron Jones by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Aaron Jones has averaged +2.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs GB | 6.3 | 10.0 | +3.7 |
| Wk 2 | @ CHI | 8.8 | 10.5 | +1.7 |
| Wk 3 | @ TB | 9.4 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB34. For the rest of the season LMD has him 5 spots higher, at RB29.
Preseason market: RB34 · ADP 100.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB29 +5
LMD has him 5 spots higher than his RB34 draft price.
Week 3
RB29 +5
LMD has him 5 spots higher than his RB34 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB34 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 128.9 points this season, RB29. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 24% of simulated seasons. That is 9.2 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 8 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
9.2 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 24%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Aaron Jones #221 in 1QB and #224 in Superflex, RB59 at his position. Age 31.
1QB
#221
RB59 · tier 49 · of 297
Superflex
#224
RB59 · tier 41 · of 303
- Last season 104.7 pts 8.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 78% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 16.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 13% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
9.06
pick 102.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.06
half of simulations take him by pick 102
Draft range
7.12 - 11.01
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.06 in 50% of simulations
Pick 102 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 10.07, where he is available in 20% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 9.06 50% · 10.07 20% · 11.06 6% · 12.07 <1% · 13.06 <1% · 14.07 <1% · 15.06 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.07 and 10.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.04 | 55% |
| 9.05 | 53% |
| 9.06 | 50% |
| 9.07 | 48% |
| 9.08 | 45% |
| 9.09 | 43% |
| 9.10 | 40% |
| 9.11 | 37% |
| 9.12 | 35% |
| 10.01 | 33% |
| 10.02 | 30% |
| 10.03 | 28% |
| 10.04 | 26% |
| 10.05 | 24% |
| 10.06 | 22% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.12-8.01 | 4% | 427 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 4% | 431 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 4% | 403 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 4% | 424 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 4% | 410 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 5% | 461 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 5% | 528 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 5% | 488 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 500 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 528 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 513 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 5% | 490 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 5% | 465 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 4% | 424 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 4% | 406 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 4% | 382 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 3% | 308 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 3% | 286 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 2% | 231 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Aaron Jones was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 2%
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
- J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 2%
- James Conner RB · ARI 2%
Usually taken just after
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
- Brian Robinson RB · ATL 2%
- Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Aaron Jones was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.