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KC · Bye 5

Travis Kelce

LMD TE3 for Week 3 · 10.3 projected Half PPR points · TE3 rest of season

Regular season

Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 10.3 points this week, TE3. Top 3: 18% · Top 12: 47% · Top 24: 72% of simulated weeks. Up 6 since Week 2.

Week 3

TE3

39th by projected points

Rest of season

TE3

42nd by projected points

Projected

10.3

week 3, Half PPR

Top 12

47%

Top 3: 18% · Top 24: 72% at TE

Movement

↑ 6

TE9 in Week 2, TE3 now

Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All TE rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Travis Kelce by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 2 completed games Travis Kelce has averaged +8.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Travis Kelce, Half PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs DEN 5.9 8.6 +2.7
Wk 2 vs IND 6.3 20.6 +14.3
Wk 3 @ MIA 10.3 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Draft Return

How he compares with his draft price

The draft market had him at TE11. For the rest of the season LMD has him 8 spots higher, at TE3.

Preseason market: TE11 · ADP 128.2

Season to date

Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.

Rest of season

TE3 +8

LMD has him 8 spots higher than his TE11 draft price.

Week 3

TE3 +8

LMD has him 8 spots higher than his TE11 draft price.

Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026

Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.

TE11 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.

ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 150.1 points this season, TE3. Top 3: 33% · Top 12: 92% · Top 24: 100% of simulated seasons. That is 10.0 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 9 since the Sept. 20 board.

Per game

10.0 / game

Over 15 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 33% · Top 12: 92% · Top 24: 100%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE

Market input

none

No market signal available.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Travis Kelce #141 in 1QB and #137 in Superflex, TE14 at his position. Age 36.

1QB

#141

TE14 · tier 31 · of 297

Superflex

#137

TE14 · tier 24 · of 303

  • Last season 155.2 pts 9.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 96% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 7.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 21% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty TE rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

11.06

pick 125.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

11.03

half of simulations take him by pick 123

Draft range

9.11 - 12.12

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 9,855 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams also published: 14 teams
Scoring Half PPR also published: Full PPR, Standard
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Redraft also published: Dynasty

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 11.03 in 52% of simulations

Pick 123 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 3, the same seat picks again at 12.10, where he is available in 14% of simulations.

Slot 3's remaining turns: 11.03 52% · 12.10 14% · 13.03 10% · 14.10 8% · 15.03 5%

The middle half of simulations take him between 10.06 and 12.02.

Travis Kelce still on the board
PickAvailable
11.01 58%
11.02 55%
11.03 52%
11.04 50%
11.05 47%
11.06 45%
11.07 42%
11.08 40%
11.09 38%
11.10 35%
11.11 33%
11.12 31%
12.01 29%
12.02 27%
12.03 25%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Travis Kelce was selected at each pick, 9.11-9.12 through 12.11-12.12. He goes earlier than this window in 9%, later in 9%, undrafted in 1%.
Draft position distribution for Travis Kelce
PickShare of simulationsCount
9.11-9.123%300 of 10000 simulations
10.01-10.025%450 of 10000 simulations
10.03-10.045%469 of 10000 simulations
10.05-10.065%533 of 10000 simulations
10.07-10.085%509 of 10000 simulations
10.09-10.105%542 of 10000 simulations
10.11-10.126%578 of 10000 simulations
11.01-11.025%516 of 10000 simulations
11.03-11.045%510 of 10000 simulations
11.05-11.065%499 of 10000 simulations
11.07-11.085%461 of 10000 simulations
11.09-11.105%469 of 10000 simulations
11.11-11.124%412 of 10000 simulations
12.01-12.024%385 of 10000 simulations
12.03-12.044%375 of 10000 simulations
12.05-12.063%312 of 10000 simulations
12.07-12.083%307 of 10000 simulations
12.09-12.103%250 of 10000 simulations
12.11-12.122%239 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 9855 simulations in which Travis Kelce was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Travis Kelce was selected in 9855 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
September 17, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Half PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.