DAL · Bye 14
Jake Ferguson
LMD TE18 for Week 3 · 6.2 projected Half PPR points · TE20 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.2 points this week, TE18. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 44% of simulated weeks. Up 2 since Week 2.
Week 3
TE18
125th by projected points
Rest of season
TE20
140th by projected points
Projected
6.2
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
25%
Top 3: 6% · Top 24: 44% at TE
Movement
↑ 2
TE20 in Week 2, TE18 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.99 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.43 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.11 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
ADP UPDATE
Jake Ferguson's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 146.7 to 151.8 over the last 7 days.
-
Jake Ferguson Fantasy Week 1 Start or Sit: A Fringe Starter at Best
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Dak Prescott Says Jake Ferguson Has Taken Another Major Step For Cowboys
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jake Ferguson by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Jake Ferguson has averaged +5.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ NYG | 5.6 | 1.6 | -4.0 |
| Wk 2 | vs WAS | 4.0 | 18.3 | +14.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs BAL | 6.2 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE14. For the rest of the season LMD has him 6 spots lower, at TE20.
Preseason market: TE14 · ADP 147.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE20 −6
LMD has him 6 spots lower than his TE14 draft price.
Week 3
TE18 −4
LMD has him 4 spots lower than his TE14 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE14 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 92.6 points this season, TE20. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 17% · Top 24: 76% of simulated seasons. That is 6.4 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 9 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
6.4 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 17% · Top 24: 76%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jake Ferguson #127 in 1QB and #126 in Superflex, TE11 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#127
TE11 · tier 28 · of 297
Superflex
#126
TE11 · tier 22 · of 303
- Last season 147.1 pts 8.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 95% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.1 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.04
pick 112.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.02
half of simulations take him by pick 110
Draft range
8.11 - 11.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,969 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.02 in 52% of simulations
Pick 110 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 11.11, where he is available in 11% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 10.02 52% · 11.11 11% · 12.02 8% · 13.11 2% · 14.02 2% · 15.11 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.05 and 11.01.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.12 | 57% |
| 10.01 | 54% |
| 10.02 | 52% |
| 10.03 | 49% |
| 10.04 | 47% |
| 10.05 | 44% |
| 10.06 | 42% |
| 10.07 | 39% |
| 10.08 | 37% |
| 10.09 | 34% |
| 10.10 | 32% |
| 10.11 | 30% |
| 10.12 | 28% |
| 11.01 | 26% |
| 11.02 | 24% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.11-8.12 | 5% | 517 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 5% | 505 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 5% | 521 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 5% | 530 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 5% | 519 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 5% | 522 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 5% | 514 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 5% | 511 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 5% | 492 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 4% | 431 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 4% | 435 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 4% | 377 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 3% | 326 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 3% | 287 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.08 | 3% | 258 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.10 | 2% | 205 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11 | <1% | 92 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9969 simulations in which Jake Ferguson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 3%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
Usually taken just after
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 3%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 3%
- Brenton Strange TE · JAX 2%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jake Ferguson was selected in 9969 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.