GB · Bye 11
Matthew Golden
LMD WR19 for Week 3 · 9.6 projected Half PPR points · WR21 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 9.6 points this week, WR19. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 17% · Top 24: 32% of simulated weeks. Up 10 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR19
52nd by projected points
Rest of season
WR21
48th by projected points
Projected
9.6
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
17%
Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 32% at WR
Movement
↑ 10
WR29 in Week 2, WR19 now
- Draft / market prior
- Strong negative-2.04 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+1.17 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.06 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
ADP UPDATE
Matthew Golden's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 99.2 to 94.5 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Matthew Golden has averaged +3.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ MIN | 5.7 | 12.5 | +6.8 |
| Wk 2 | @ NYJ | 7.0 | 7.8 | +0.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs ATL | 9.6 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR46. For the rest of the season LMD has him 25 spots higher, at WR21.
Preseason market: WR46 · ADP 96.2
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR21 +25
LMD has him 25 spots higher than his WR46 draft price.
Week 3
WR19 +27
LMD has him 27 spots higher than his WR46 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR46 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 147.4 points this season, WR21. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 17% · Top 24: 48% of simulated seasons. That is 9.8 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 4 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
9.8 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 17% · Top 24: 48%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Matthew Golden #168 in 1QB and #174 in Superflex, WR70 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#168
WR70 · tier 39 · of 297
Superflex
#174
WR70 · tier 33 · of 303
- Last season 55.5 pts 4.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 82% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.03
pick 147.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.08
half of simulations take him by pick 140
Draft range
11.10 - 15.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,599 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.08 in 59% of simulations
Pick 140 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 13.05, where he is available in 42% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 12.08 59% · 13.05 42% · 14.08 37% · 15.05 26%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.02 and 14.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.06 | 65% |
| 12.07 | 62% |
| 12.08 | 59% |
| 12.09 | 55% |
| 12.10 | 52% |
| 12.11 | 49% |
| 12.12 | 46% |
| 13.01 | 42% |
| 13.02 | 42% |
| 13.03 | 42% |
| 13.04 | 42% |
| 13.05 | 42% |
| 13.06 | 42% |
| 13.07 | 42% |
| 13.08 | 42% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.10-11.11 | 7% | 701 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 6% | 629 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.03 | 8% | 757 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.05 | 7% | 687 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 7% | 685 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 7% | 678 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 6% | 628 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 3% | 319 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 20 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 25 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 33 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 42 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 37 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | <1% | 68 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | <1% | 90 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | 1% | 106 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 1% | 117 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 1% | 111 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 1% | 142 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 3% | 275 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 4% | 392 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 3% | 337 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 3% | 334 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8599 simulations in which Matthew Golden was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 3%
- Xavier Worthy WR · KC 3%
- Woody Marks RB · HOU 3%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 3%
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 3%
- Xavier Worthy WR · KC 3%
- Rachaad White RB · WAS 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Matthew Golden was selected in 8599 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.