LAR · Bye 11
Terrance Ferguson
LMD TE17 for Week 3 · 6.4 projected Half PPR points · TE18 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.4 points this week, TE17. Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 26% · Top 24: 46% of simulated weeks. Up 19 since Week 2.
Week 3
TE17
122nd by projected points
Rest of season
TE18
133rd by projected points
Projected
6.4
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
26%
Top 3: 7% · Top 24: 46% at TE
Movement
↑ 19
TE36 in Week 2, TE17 now
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-1.24 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.66 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.01 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Terrance Ferguson is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Terrance Ferguson's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 166.3 to 182.0 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Terrance Ferguson has averaged +4.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs SF | 4.1 | 0.0 | -4.1 |
| Wk 2 | vs NYG | 2.4 | 14.4 | +12.0 |
| Wk 3 | @ DEN | 6.4 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 96.2 points this season, TE18. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 23% · Top 24: 80% of simulated seasons. That is 6.6 a game over 15 remaining games.
Per game
6.6 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 23% · Top 24: 80%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Terrance Ferguson #238 in 1QB and #236 in Superflex, TE36 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#238
TE36 · tier 52 · of 297
Superflex
#236
TE36 · tier 45 · of 303
- Last season 46.6 pts 4.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 65% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 2.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 6% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.04
pick 171.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.05
half of simulations take him by pick 173
Draft range
14.06 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 2,687 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.05 in 88% of simulations
Pick 173 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.01 and 15.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.03 | 91% |
| 15.04 | 89% |
| 15.05 | 88% |
| 15.06 | 86% |
| 15.07 | 84% |
| 15.08 | 83% |
| 15.09 | 81% |
| 15.10 | 79% |
| 15.11 | 77% |
| 15.12 | 75% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.06 | <1% | 46 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | <1% | 43 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | <1% | 52 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | <1% | 53 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | <1% | 48 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | <1% | 68 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | <1% | 70 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 2% | 166 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 1% | 132 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 1% | 145 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 156 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 155 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 162 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 169 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 174 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 202 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 187 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 203 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 2687 simulations in which Terrance Ferguson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 3%
- Chris Boswell K · PIT 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
Usually taken just after
- Andy Borregales K · NE 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Chris Boswell K · PIT 2%
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Terrance Ferguson was selected in 2687 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.