TB · Bye 10
Kenny Gainwell
LMD RB43 for Week 3 · 6.5 projected Half PPR points · RB41 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.5 points this week, RB43. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 7% · Top 24: 23% of simulated weeks. Down 1 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB43
121st by projected points
Rest of season
RB41
130th by projected points
Projected
6.5
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
7%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 23% at RB
Movement
↓ 1
RB42 in Week 2, RB43 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+1.35 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.96 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.01 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
ADP UPDATE
Kenny Gainwell's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 100.4 to 110.4 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Kenny Gainwell has averaged -3.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CIN | 6.4 | 2.3 | -4.1 |
| Wk 2 | vs CLE | 5.1 | 3.0 | -2.1 |
| Wk 3 | vs MIN | 6.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB38. For the rest of the season LMD has him 3 spots lower, at RB41.
Preseason market: RB38 · ADP 108.0
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB41 −3
LMD has him 3 spots lower than his RB38 draft price.
Week 3
RB43 −5
LMD has him 5 spots lower than his RB38 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB38 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 97.2 points this season, RB41. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1% of simulated seasons. That is 6.6 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 2 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
6.6 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kenny Gainwell #112 in 1QB and #116 in Superflex, RB36 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#112
RB36 · tier 25 · of 297
Superflex
#116
RB36 · tier 20 · of 303
- Last season 184.8 pts 10.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 99% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 9.1 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 11% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
9.09
pick 104.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.08
half of simulations take him by pick 104
Draft range
8.02 - 11.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,999 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.08 in 51% of simulations
Pick 104 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 10.05, where he is available in 28% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 9.08 51% · 10.05 28% · 11.08 6% · 12.05 1% · 13.08 <1% · 14.05 <1% · 15.08 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.10 and 10.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.06 | 56% |
| 9.07 | 53% |
| 9.08 | 51% |
| 9.09 | 48% |
| 9.10 | 46% |
| 9.11 | 43% |
| 9.12 | 41% |
| 10.01 | 38% |
| 10.02 | 35% |
| 10.03 | 33% |
| 10.04 | 30% |
| 10.05 | 28% |
| 10.06 | 26% |
| 10.07 | 24% |
| 10.08 | 22% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.02-8.03 | 4% | 401 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 4% | 399 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 4% | 415 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 4% | 445 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 4% | 448 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 5% | 472 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 5% | 513 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 502 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 499 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 517 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 5% | 501 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 6% | 559 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 5% | 457 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 4% | 429 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 4% | 389 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 4% | 368 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 3% | 302 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 3% | 293 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 3% | 280 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9999 simulations in which Kenny Gainwell was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Aaron Jones RB · MIN 2%
- James Conner RB · ARI 2%
- Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 2%
- Alec Pierce WR · IND 2%
Usually taken just after
- Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 2%
- James Conner RB · ARI 2%
- Aaron Jones RB · MIN 2%
- Jonathon Brooks RB · CAR 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kenny Gainwell was selected in 9999 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.