TEN · Bye 9 · Rookie
Carnell Tate
LMD WR32 for Week 3 · 8.8 projected Half PPR points · WR37 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.8 points this week, WR32. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 14% · Top 24: 28% of simulated weeks. Down 1 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR32
69th by projected points
Rest of season
WR37
74th by projected points
Projected
8.8
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
14%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 28% at WR
Movement
↓ 1
WR31 in Week 2, WR32 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.69 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.93 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.23 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Carnell Tate not a big factor in Week 2
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Carnell Tate led Tennessee Titans WRs in snaps vs. New York Jets
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Grading rookie debuts for Jeremiyah Love, Carnell Tate, Sonny Styles and more in Week 1
Sporting News ·
-
Carnell Tate finishes with 38 yards in debut
Yahoo Sports ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Carnell Tate's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 75.8 to 70.6 over the last 7 days.
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Carnell Tate by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Carnell Tate has averaged -1.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NYJ | 6.3 | 5.8 | -0.5 |
| Wk 2 | vs PHI | 6.3 | 4.2 | -2.1 |
| Wk 3 | @ NYG | 8.8 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR37, and for the rest of the season LMD still has him there.
Preseason market: WR37 · ADP 76.3
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR37 Even
Level with his WR37 draft price.
Week 3
WR32 +5
LMD has him 5 spots higher than his WR37 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR37 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 126.6 points this season, WR37. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 20% of simulated seasons. That is 8.6 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 5 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
8.6 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 20%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Carnell Tate #23 in 1QB and #32 in Superflex, WR7 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 21.
1QB
#23
WR7 · tier 9 · of 297 · rookie 2 of 52
Superflex
#32
WR7 · tier 8 · of 303 · rookie 3 of 52
- Draft capital Round 1, pick 4 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
6.09
pick 68.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
6.09
half of simulations take him by pick 69
Draft range
5.04 - 7.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 6.09 in 52% of simulations
Pick 69 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 7.04, where he is available in 30% of simulations.
Slot 4's remaining turns: 6.09 52% · 7.04 30% · 8.09 1% · 9.04 <1% · 10.09 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.12 and 7.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 6.07 | 58% |
| 6.08 | 55% |
| 6.09 | 52% |
| 6.10 | 49% |
| 6.11 | 46% |
| 6.12 | 43% |
| 7.01 | 39% |
| 7.02 | 36% |
| 7.03 | 32% |
| 7.04 | 30% |
| 7.05 | 27% |
| 7.06 | 24% |
| 7.07 | 21% |
| 7.08 | 19% |
| 7.09 | 16% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 5.04-5.05 | 4% | 362 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06-5.07 | 3% | 337 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08-5.09 | 4% | 362 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10-5.11 | 4% | 431 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12-6.01 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.02-6.03 | 5% | 530 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.04-6.05 | 5% | 540 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.06-6.07 | 6% | 640 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08-6.09 | 6% | 636 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10-6.11 | 6% | 629 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 7% | 680 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02-7.03 | 6% | 603 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 6% | 591 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 5% | 504 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 4% | 445 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 4% | 400 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12 | 1% | 135 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Carnell Tate was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Terry McLaurin WR · WAS 3%
- Mike Evans WR · SF 3%
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jordyn Tyson WR · NO 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE 3%
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Carnell Tate was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.