JAX · Bye 7
Brian Thomas Jr.
LMD WR44 for Week 3 · 8.0 projected Half PPR points · WR54 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.0 points this week, WR44. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 12% · Top 24: 24% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 13 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR44
85th by projected points
Rest of season
WR54
101st by projected points
Projected
8.0
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
12%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 24% at WR
Movement
↑ 13
WR57 in Week 2, WR44 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.25 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.24 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.23 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Three grabs for Brian Thomas Jr.
USA TODAY ·
-
This Is Why Brian Thomas Jr. Isn’t Getting Catches For Jaguars
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Xavier Worthy and Brian Thomas Jr.: Week 2 fantasy start-sit dilemmas
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Brian Thomas Jr. will play in Week 2
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Jaguars game status report: Brian Thomas Jr. cleared to play on Sunday
jacksonville.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Brian Thomas Jr. by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Brian Thomas Jr. has averaged +0.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CLE | 5.9 | 5.5 | -0.4 |
| Wk 2 | @ DEN | 4.9 | 5.5 | +0.6 |
| Wk 3 | vs NE | 8.0 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR35. For the rest of the season LMD has him 19 spots lower, at WR54.
Preseason market: WR35 · ADP 69.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR54 −19
LMD has him 19 spots lower than his WR35 draft price.
Week 3
WR44 −9
LMD has him 9 spots lower than his WR35 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR35 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 115.8 points this season, WR54. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 9% of simulated seasons. That is 7.9 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 7 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
7.9 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 9%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Brian Thomas Jr. #61 in 1QB and #66 in Superflex, WR21 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#61
WR21 · tier 16 · of 297
Superflex
#66
WR21 · tier 13 · of 303
- Last season 114.8 pts 8.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 89% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 22% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
7.11
pick 83.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
7.10
half of simulations take him by pick 82
Draft range
6.06 - 9.04
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 7.10 in 53% of simulations
Pick 82 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 8.03, where he is available in 38% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 7.10 53% · 8.03 38% · 9.10 5% · 10.03 2% · 11.10 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.02 and 8.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.08 | 59% |
| 7.09 | 56% |
| 7.10 | 53% |
| 7.11 | 50% |
| 7.12 | 47% |
| 8.01 | 44% |
| 8.02 | 41% |
| 8.03 | 38% |
| 8.04 | 35% |
| 8.05 | 33% |
| 8.06 | 30% |
| 8.07 | 28% |
| 8.08 | 26% |
| 8.09 | 24% |
| 8.10 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.06-6.07 | 3% | 343 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08-6.09 | 3% | 348 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10-6.11 | 4% | 431 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02-7.03 | 5% | 510 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 5% | 512 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 6% | 636 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 6% | 610 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 6% | 616 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 6% | 590 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 5% | 549 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 5% | 453 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 4% | 424 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 3% | 326 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 3% | 311 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04 | 1% | 133 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Brian Thomas Jr. was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB 3%
- Dak Prescott QB · DAL 2%
- Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 2%
- Michael Wilson WR · ARI 2%
Usually taken just after
- Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 3%
- Michael Wilson WR · ARI 2%
- Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB 2%
- Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Brian Thomas Jr. was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.