BAL · Bye 13
Zay Flowers
LMD WR9 rest of season · 173.2 projected Half PPR points
Out this week
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 173.2 points this season, WR9. Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 47% · Top 24: 76% of simulated seasons. That is 12.6 a game over 14 remaining games. Ruled out this week, so this projection is for the games after it. Up 6 since the Sept. 20 board.
Rest of season
WR9
25th by projected points
Projected
173.2
rest of season, Half PPR
Top 12
47%
Top 3: 9% · Top 24: 76% at WR
Movement
↑ 6
WR15 on Sept. 20, WR9 now
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Ravens Deliver Positive Injury Update on WR Zay Flowers
newsweek.com ·
-
Zay Flowers may return to lineup in Week 3
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Ravens' Zay Flowers doubtful vs. Saints; Nnamdi Madubuike out - ESPN
players.bio ·
-
Ravens Make Zay Flowers Injury Announcement Ahead of Saints Game
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Ravens injury report: Zay Flowers doubtful, Nnamdi Madubuike out for home opener
dailygazette.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Zay Flowers by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Zay Flowers has averaged +14.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ IND | 8.9 | 23.5 | +14.6 |
| Wk 2 | vs NO | 9.2 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR13. For the rest of the season LMD has him 4 spots higher, at WR9.
Preseason market: WR13 · ADP 24.0
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR9 +4
LMD has him 4 spots higher than his WR13 draft price.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR13 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 173.2 points this season, WR9. Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 47% · Top 24: 76% of simulated seasons. That is 12.6 a game over 14 remaining games. Ruled out this week, so this projection is for the games after it. Up 6 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
12.6 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 47% · Top 24: 76%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Zay Flowers #25 in 1QB and #33 in Superflex, WR8 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#25
WR8 · tier 10 · of 297
Superflex
#33
WR8 · tier 8 · of 303
- Last season 200.3 pts 11.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 99% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 27% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
5.05
pick 52.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
5.05
half of simulations take him by pick 53
Draft range
4.03 - 6.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.05 in 51% of simulations
Pick 53 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 6.08, where he is available in 9% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 5.05 51% · 6.08 9% · 7.05 <1% · 8.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.10 and 5.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 5.03 | 58% |
| 5.04 | 54% |
| 5.05 | 51% |
| 5.06 | 47% |
| 5.07 | 43% |
| 5.08 | 40% |
| 5.09 | 36% |
| 5.10 | 33% |
| 5.11 | 30% |
| 5.12 | 27% |
| 6.01 | 24% |
| 6.02 | 22% |
| 6.03 | 19% |
| 6.04 | 17% |
| 6.05 | 15% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.03-4.04 | 4% | 373 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05-4.06 | 4% | 433 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07-4.08 | 5% | 469 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09-4.10 | 6% | 584 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11-4.12 | 7% | 682 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01-5.02 | 7% | 719 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03-5.04 | 7% | 734 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05-5.06 | 7% | 749 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07-5.08 | 7% | 710 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09-5.10 | 7% | 659 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11-5.12 | 6% | 590 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01-6.02 | 5% | 475 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03-6.04 | 4% | 434 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05-6.06 | 4% | 385 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07 | 2% | 174 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Zay Flowers was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
- DJ Moore WR · BUF 3%
- Rome Odunze WR · CHI 3%
- Davante Adams WR · LAR 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
- Rome Odunze WR · CHI 3%
- DJ Moore WR · BUF 3%
- Terry McLaurin WR · WAS 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Zay Flowers was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.