BUF · Bye 7
Dalton Kincaid
LMD TE5 for Week 3 · 9.7 projected Half PPR points · TE4 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 9.7 points this week, TE5. Top 3: 16% · Top 12: 45% · Top 24: 71% of simulated weeks. Up 5 since Week 2.
Week 3
TE5
49th by projected points
Rest of season
TE4
49th by projected points
Projected
9.7
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
45%
Top 3: 16% · Top 24: 71% at TE
Movement
↑ 5
TE10 in Week 2, TE5 now
- Draft / market prior
- Strong negative-2.11 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Strong positive+2.07 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.08 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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Dalton Kincaid shines in season opener
Yahoo Sports ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Dalton Kincaid's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 143.8 to 151.4 over the last 7 days.
-
Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid makes a reception during the second quarter against the Houston Texans.
Sports Illustrated ·
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Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid makes a catch defended against the New York Jets.
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Dalton Kincaid by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Dalton Kincaid has averaged +11.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ HOU | 5.2 | 15.5 | +10.3 |
| Wk 2 | vs DET | 6.2 | 19.0 | +12.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAC | 9.7 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE15. For the rest of the season LMD has him 11 spots higher, at TE4.
Preseason market: TE15 · ADP 149.2
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE4 +11
LMD has him 11 spots higher than his TE15 draft price.
Week 3
TE5 +10
LMD has him 10 spots higher than his TE15 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE15 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 146.8 points this season, TE4. Top 3: 29% · Top 12: 90% · Top 24: 100% of simulated seasons. That is 9.8 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 11 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
9.8 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 29% · Top 12: 90% · Top 24: 100%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Dalton Kincaid #146 in 1QB and #143 in Superflex, TE15 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#146
TE15 · tier 32 · of 297
Superflex
#143
TE15 · tier 26 · of 303
- Last season 106.6 pts 8.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 77% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.10
pick 94.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.09
half of simulations take him by pick 93
Draft range
7.05 - 10.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.09 in 52% of simulations
Pick 93 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 9.04, where he is available in 33% of simulations.
Slot 4's remaining turns: 8.09 52% · 9.04 33% · 10.09 6% · 11.04 2% · 12.09 <1% · 13.04 <1% · 14.09 <1% · 15.04 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.12 and 9.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.07 | 58% |
| 8.08 | 55% |
| 8.09 | 52% |
| 8.10 | 49% |
| 8.11 | 47% |
| 8.12 | 44% |
| 9.01 | 41% |
| 9.02 | 38% |
| 9.03 | 36% |
| 9.04 | 33% |
| 9.05 | 31% |
| 9.06 | 29% |
| 9.07 | 27% |
| 9.08 | 25% |
| 9.09 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.05-7.06 | 4% | 366 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 4% | 409 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 5% | 472 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 6% | 568 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 5% | 460 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 5% | 494 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 5% | 530 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 5% | 532 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 6% | 580 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 6% | 557 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 5% | 522 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 4% | 445 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 4% | 407 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 4% | 378 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 3% | 344 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 3% | 257 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 3% | 268 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05 | 1% | 103 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Dalton Kincaid was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Oronde Gadsden II TE · LAC 2%
- Kyle Pitts TE · ATL 2%
- DK Metcalf WR · PIT 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
Usually taken just after
- J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 2%
- Oronde Gadsden II TE · LAC 2%
- Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 2%
- Tucker Kraft TE · GB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Dalton Kincaid was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.