SF · Bye 8
Deebo Samuel Sr.
LMD WR30 for Week 3 · 8.8 projected Half PPR points · WR40 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.8 points this week, WR30. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 14% · Top 24: 28% of simulated weeks. Up 8 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR30
67th by projected points
Rest of season
WR40
78th by projected points
Projected
8.8
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
14%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 28% at WR
Movement
↑ 8
WR38 in Week 2, WR30 now
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.08 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.33 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.40 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
ADP UPDATE
Deebo Samuel Sr.'s ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 109.8 to 104.0 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Deebo Samuel Sr. has averaged +4.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LAR | 4.6 | 15.0 | +10.4 |
| Wk 2 | vs MIA | 5.6 | 5.0 | -0.6 |
| Wk 3 | vs ARI | 8.8 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR51. For the rest of the season LMD has him 11 spots higher, at WR40.
Preseason market: WR51 · ADP 111.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR40 +11
LMD has him 11 spots higher than his WR51 draft price.
Week 3
WR30 +21
LMD has him 21 spots higher than his WR51 draft price.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR51 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 125.4 points this season, WR40. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 18% of simulated seasons. That is 8.8 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 8 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
8.8 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 18%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Deebo Samuel Sr. #105 in 1QB and #109 in Superflex, WR41 at his position. Age 30.
1QB
#105
WR41 · tier 25 · of 297
Superflex
#109
WR41 · tier 20 · of 303
- Last season 152.2 pts 9.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 91% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 22% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.05
pick 161.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.11
half of simulations take him by pick 167
Draft range
12.09 - 15.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 6,265 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.11 in 69% of simulations
Pick 167 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 15.02, where he is available in 64% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 14.11 69% · 15.02 64%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.11 and 15.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.09 | 71% |
| 14.10 | 70% |
| 14.11 | 69% |
| 14.12 | 68% |
| 15.01 | 67% |
| 15.02 | 64% |
| 15.03 | 62% |
| 15.04 | 59% |
| 15.05 | 56% |
| 15.06 | 54% |
| 15.07 | 51% |
| 15.08 | 48% |
| 15.09 | 46% |
| 15.10 | 43% |
| 15.11 | 41% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.09-12.10 | 9% | 851 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-12.12 | 8% | 794 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | <1% | 23 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | <1% | 33 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | <1% | 33 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | <1% | 38 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | <1% | 52 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | <1% | 49 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | 1% | 125 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | 1% | 144 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | 1% | 147 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | 2% | 193 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | 2% | 189 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 2% | 205 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 6% | 568 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.04 | 6% | 550 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 5% | 513 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07-15.08 | 5% | 532 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 237 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 6265 simulations in which Deebo Samuel Sr. was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jake Bates K · DET 2%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 2%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 2%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
Usually taken just after
- Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 2%
- Jalen Coker WR · CAR 2%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 2%
- Xavier Worthy WR · KC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Deebo Samuel Sr. was selected in 6265 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.