NFL · 2026 Week 4
2026 Week 4 WR Rankings
Final pre-kickoff board · published October 1, 2026, 20:25 UTC · first kickoff October 2, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Full PPR, 1QB · 178 players projected · updated October 1, 2026
How these rankings work
How these rankings are built
We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.
We then update those expectations for Week 4 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.
We then simulate the week 4,000 times and rank players by the projected fantasy points those simulations produce.
This board is priced in Full PPR. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.
What the percentages mean
For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.
- Top 3
- how often he finishes among the top three at his position
- Top 12
- how often he finishes in the top 12
- Top 24
- how often he finishes in the top 24
A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.
How often a strong start lasts
Since 1999, 51% of WRs inside the top 12 through Week 3 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 324 WR-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.
What stood out in Week 4
178 WRs ranked for Week 4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads at 20.4 projected points.
Tier break
1.6 projected points separate WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba from WR2 Chris Olave.
Biggest differences from the draft market
Ahead
- Josh DownsWR19Sportsbooks pricing him above our baselineTop 3: 5% · Top 12: 23% · Top 24: 42% +23 vs. WR42
- Parker WashingtonWR13Sportsbooks pricing him above our baselineTop 3: 7% · Top 12: 27% · Top 24: 48% +12 vs. WR25
Behind
- Emeka EgbukaWR35Sportsbooks pricing him below our baselineTop 3: 2% · Top 12: 12% · Top 24: 27% -15 vs. WR20
- Michael PittmanWR48Sportsbooks pricing him below our baselineTop 3: 3% · Top 12: 10% · Top 24: 20% -12 vs. WR36
- Ladd McConkeyWR32Sportsbooks pricing him below our baselineTop 3: 4% · Top 12: 15% · Top 24: 28% -11 vs. WR21
Movement
Risers
- Michael WilsonWR17Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 24% · Top 24: 43% ↑ 29
- Malik WashingtonWR34Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 12% · Top 24: 26% ↑ 24
- Josh DownsWR19Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 23% · Top 24: 42% ↑ 23
Fallers
- Denzel BostonWR49 ↓ 17
- Jalen CokerWR27Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 18% · Top 24: 33% ↓ 16
- Michael PittmanWR48Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 10% · Top 24: 20% ↓ 12
Positional movement since the final Week 3 board, among players inside WR36 either week. Players not ranked at their position then are excluded.
| # | Pos | Player | Pos rank | Proj | Outcome profile | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WR | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR14 at the median, WR5 - WR29 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR51 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 19%Top 12: 48%Top 24: 70% |
WR1— | 20.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR14 at the median, WR5 - WR29 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR51 in the middle 80%. | |
| 2 | WR | Chris OlaveNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 39%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR17 at the median, WR6 - WR39 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 16%Top 12: 42%Top 24: 61% |
WR2↑ 1 | 18.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 39%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR17 at the median, WR6 - WR39 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR65 in the middle 80%. | |
| 3 | WR | Amon-Ra St. BrownDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 37%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR16 at the median, WR6 - WR35 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR58 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 15%Top 12: 43%Top 24: 64% |
WR3↓ 1 | 18.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 37%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR16 at the median, WR6 - WR35 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR58 in the middle 80%. | |
| 4 | WR | Ja'Marr ChaseCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 40%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR18 at the median, WR7 - WR38 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR60 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 39%Top 24: 60% |
WR4↑ 1 | 17.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 40%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR18 at the median, WR7 - WR38 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR60 in the middle 80%. | |
| 5 | WR | Puka NacuaLARQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR22 at the median, WR8 - WR51 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR79 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 15%Top 12: 35%Top 24: 53% |
WR5↑ 4 | 17.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR22 at the median, WR8 - WR51 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR79 in the middle 80%. | |
| 6 | WR | Garrett WilsonNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR20 at the median, WR9 - WR40 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR63 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 34%Top 24: 58% |
WR6↑ 9 | 16.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR20 at the median, WR9 - WR40 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR63 in the middle 80%. | |
| 7 | WR | CeeDee LambDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR21 at the median, WR8 - WR43 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR66 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 34%Top 24: 55% |
WR7↓ 3 | 16.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR21 at the median, WR8 - WR43 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR66 in the middle 80%. | |
| 8 | WR | Drake LondonATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 46%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR22 at the median, WR9 - WR43 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 32%Top 24: 54% |
WR8↑ 8 | 15.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 46%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR22 at the median, WR9 - WR43 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR65 in the middle 80%. | |
| 9 | WR | Davante AdamsLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR10 - WR47 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 51% |
WR9↓ 3 | 15.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR10 - WR47 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR69 in the middle 80%. | |
| 10 | WR | Nico CollinsHOUQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR10 - WR61 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 29%Top 24: 45% |
WR10↑ 2 | 15.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR10 - WR61 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR91 in the middle 80%. | |
| 11 | WR | DeVonta SmithPHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR28 at the median, WR10 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR81 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 29%Top 24: 46% |
WR11↓ 3 | 14.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR28 at the median, WR10 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR81 in the middle 80%. | |
| 12 | WR | Zay FlowersBALQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR11 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 45% |
WR12↓ 5 | 14.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR11 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR85 in the middle 80%. | |
| 13 | WR | Parker WashingtonJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR26 at the median, WR11 - WR50 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR72 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 48% |
WR13↑ 4 | 14.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR26 at the median, WR11 - WR50 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR72 in the middle 80%. | |
| 14 | WR | Christian WatsonGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR27 at the median, WR12 - WR51 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR72 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 46% |
WR14— | 14.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR27 at the median, WR12 - WR51 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR72 in the middle 80%. | |
| 15 | WR | Justin JeffersonMINQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR32 at the median, WR12 - WR61 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 42% |
WR15↓ 5 | 13.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR32 at the median, WR12 - WR61 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR86 in the middle 80%. | |
| 16 | WR | George PickensDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR13 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR76 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 44% |
WR16↑ 2 | 13.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR13 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR76 in the middle 80%. | |
| 17 | WR | Michael WilsonARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR13 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR75 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 43% |
WR17↑ 29 | 13.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR13 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR75 in the middle 80%. | |
| 18 | WR | Tetairoa McMillanCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR31 at the median, WR14 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR75 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 42% |
WR18↓ 5 | 13.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR31 at the median, WR14 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR75 in the middle 80%. | |
| 19 | WR | Josh DownsIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR30 at the median, WR14 - WR56 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR77 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 42% |
WR19↑ 23 | 13.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR30 at the median, WR14 - WR56 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR77 in the middle 80%. | |
| 20 | WR | Rashee RiceKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR30 at the median, WR14 - WR57 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR78 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 42% |
WR20↑ 5 | 13.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR30 at the median, WR14 - WR57 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR78 in the middle 80%. | |
| 21 | WR | Tee HigginsCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR31 at the median, WR15 - WR57 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR78 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 41% |
WR21↓ 2 | 13.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR31 at the median, WR15 - WR57 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR78 in the middle 80%. | |
| 22 | WR | Matthew GoldenGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR33 at the median, WR15 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR79 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 40% |
WR22↑ 2 | 13.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR33 at the median, WR15 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR79 in the middle 80%. | |
| 23 | WR | Luther Burden IIICHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 64%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR35 at the median, WR17 - WR62 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR83 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 18%Top 24: 36% |
WR23↑ 7 | 12.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 64%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR35 at the median, WR17 - WR62 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR83 in the middle 80%. | |
| 24 | WR | Terry McLaurinWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 64%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR36 at the median, WR17 - WR64 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 18%Top 24: 36% |
WR24↑ 10 | 11.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 64%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR36 at the median, WR17 - WR64 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR86 in the middle 80%. | |
| 25 | WR | Jaylen WaddleDENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR40 at the median, WR18 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR94 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 18%Top 24: 34% |
WR25↓ 5 | 11.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR40 at the median, WR18 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR94 in the middle 80%. | |
| 26 | WR | Malik NabersNYGQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR40 at the median, WR17 - WR71 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 18%Top 24: 34% |
WR26↓ 4 | 11.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR40 at the median, WR17 - WR71 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR95 in the middle 80%. | |
| 27 | WR | Jalen CokerCARQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR40 at the median, WR18 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 18%Top 24: 33% |
WR27↓ 16 | 11.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR40 at the median, WR18 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR96 in the middle 80%. | |
| 28 | WR | DJ MooreBUFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR42 at the median, WR19 - WR72 in the middle half, and WR8 - WR96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 32% |
WR28↑ 9 | 11.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR42 at the median, WR19 - WR72 in the middle half, and WR8 - WR96 in the middle 80%. | |
| 29 | WR | Mike EvansSFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR42 at the median, WR18 - WR73 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 32% |
WR29— | 11.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR42 at the median, WR18 - WR73 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR98 in the middle 80%. | |
| 30 | WR | Stefon DiggsWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR41 at the median, WR20 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 32% |
WR30↓ 9 | 11.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR41 at the median, WR20 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR88 in the middle 80%. | |
| 31 | WR | Devaughn VeleNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR42 at the median, WR22 - WR70 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 29% |
WR31↓ 8 | 10.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR42 at the median, WR22 - WR70 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR92 in the middle 80%. | |
| 32 | WR | Ladd McConkeyLACQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR21 - WR76 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 28% |
WR32↓ 5 | 10.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR21 - WR76 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR100 in the middle 80%. | |
| 33 | WR | Carnell TateTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR22 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 28% |
WR33↓ 2 | 10.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR22 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR91 in the middle 80%. | |
| 34 | WR | Malik WashingtonMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR24 - WR71 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 26% |
WR34↑ 24 | 10.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR24 - WR71 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR93 in the middle 80%. | |
| 35 | WR | Emeka EgbukaTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR23 - WR73 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR94 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 27% |
WR35↓ 9 | 10.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR23 - WR73 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR94 in the middle 80%. | |
| 36 | WR | DK MetcalfPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR23 - WR73 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 27% |
WR36↓ 8 | 10.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR23 - WR73 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR95 in the middle 80%. | |
| 37 | WR | Jameson WilliamsDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR23 - WR72 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR94 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 27% |
WR37↓ 4 | 10.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR23 - WR72 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR94 in the middle 80%. | |
| 38 | WR | Courtland SuttonDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR50 at the median, WR25 - WR76 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 24% |
WR38↑ 6 | 9.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR50 at the median, WR25 - WR76 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR99 in the middle 80%. | |
| 39 | WR | Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR51 at the median, WR26 - WR76 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 23% |
WR39↑ 23 | 9.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR51 at the median, WR26 - WR76 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR97 in the middle 80%. | |
| 40 | WR | Keenan AllenINDQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR26 - WR84 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR111 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 24% |
WR40↑ 16 | 9.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR26 - WR84 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR111 in the middle 80%. | |
| 41 | WR | KC ConcepcionCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR52 at the median, WR27 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 22% |
WR41↓ 1 | 9.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR52 at the median, WR27 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR100 in the middle 80%. | |
| 42 | WR | Jakobi MeyersJAXQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR56 at the median, WR27 - WR85 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR113 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 22% |
WR42↑ 19 | 9.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR56 at the median, WR27 - WR85 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR113 in the middle 80%. | |
| 43 | WR | Kalif RaymondCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR52 at the median, WR27 - WR76 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 22% |
WR43↑ 11 | 9.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR52 at the median, WR27 - WR76 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR98 in the middle 80%. | |
| 44 | WR | Deebo Samuel Sr.SF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR28 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR14 - WR101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 21% |
WR44↓ 6 | 9.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR28 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR14 - WR101 in the middle 80%. | |
| 45 | WR | Dontayvion WicksPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR28 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR14 - WR99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 21% |
WR45↓ 4 | 9.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR28 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR14 - WR99 in the middle 80%. | |
| 46 | WR | Tre TuckerLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR28 - WR79 in the middle half, and WR14 - WR102 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 21% |
WR46↓ 7 | 9.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR28 - WR79 in the middle half, and WR14 - WR102 in the middle 80%. | |
| 47 | WR | Jordan AddisonMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR55 at the median, WR29 - WR80 in the middle half, and WR15 - WR103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 20% |
WR47↑ 26 | 9.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR55 at the median, WR29 - WR80 in the middle half, and WR15 - WR103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 48 | WR | Michael PittmanPITQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR60 at the median, WR29 - WR88 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR117 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 20% |
WR48↓ 12 | 9.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR60 at the median, WR29 - WR88 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR117 in the middle 80%. | |
| 49 | WR | Denzel BostonCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR57 at the median, WR30 - WR81 in the middle half, and WR14 - WR105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 20% |
WR49↓ 17 | 8.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR57 at the median, WR30 - WR81 in the middle half, and WR14 - WR105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 50 | WR | Mack HollinsNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR57 at the median, WR30 - WR82 in the middle half, and WR15 - WR104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 19% |
WR50↑ 33 | 8.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR57 at the median, WR30 - WR82 in the middle half, and WR15 - WR104 in the middle 80%. | |
| 51 | WR | Khalil ShakirBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR58 at the median, WR30 - WR84 in the middle half, and WR15 - WR105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 19% |
WR51↓ 6 | 8.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR58 at the median, WR30 - WR84 in the middle half, and WR15 - WR105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 52 | WR | Rome OdunzeCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR59 at the median, WR31 - WR85 in the middle half, and WR15 - WR108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 18% |
WR52↓ 4 | 8.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR59 at the median, WR31 - WR85 in the middle half, and WR15 - WR108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 53 | WR | Romeo DoubsNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR57 at the median, WR31 - WR82 in the middle half, and WR16 - WR104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 19% |
WR53— | 8.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR57 at the median, WR31 - WR82 in the middle half, and WR16 - WR104 in the middle 80%. | |
| 54 | WR | Ryan FlournoyDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR60 at the median, WR33 - WR86 in the middle half, and WR17 - WR109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 17% |
WR54↑ 12 | 8.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR60 at the median, WR33 - WR86 in the middle half, and WR17 - WR109 in the middle 80%. | |
| 55 | WR | Xavier WorthyKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR61 at the median, WR32 - WR87 in the middle half, and WR16 - WR110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 18% |
WR55↓ 12 | 8.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR61 at the median, WR32 - WR87 in the middle half, and WR16 - WR110 in the middle 80%. | |
| 56 | WR | Rashod BatemanBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR65 at the median, WR36 - WR91 in the middle half, and WR18 - WR113 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 15% |
WR56↓ 6 | 7.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR65 at the median, WR36 - WR91 in the middle half, and WR18 - WR113 in the middle 80%. | |
| 57 | WR | Quentin JohnstonLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR64 at the median, WR36 - WR89 in the middle half, and WR19 - WR112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 14% |
WR57↑ 7 | 7.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR64 at the median, WR36 - WR89 in the middle half, and WR19 - WR112 in the middle 80%. | |
| 58 | WR | Tre HarrisLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR66 at the median, WR40 - WR91 in the middle half, and WR21 - WR112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 12% |
WR58↑ 14 | 7.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR66 at the median, WR40 - WR91 in the middle half, and WR21 - WR112 in the middle 80%. | |
| 59 | WR | Xavier HutchinsonHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR68 at the median, WR39 - WR94 in the middle half, and WR21 - WR117 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 13% |
WR59↑ 4 | 7.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR68 at the median, WR39 - WR94 in the middle half, and WR21 - WR117 in the middle 80%. | |
| 60 | WR | Ray-Ray McCloudNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR75 at the median, WR38 - WR110 in the middle half, and WR18 - WR140 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 15% |
WR60↑ 109 | 7.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR75 at the median, WR38 - WR110 in the middle half, and WR18 - WR140 in the middle 80%. | |
| 61 | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR70 at the median, WR41 - WR94 in the middle half, and WR22 - WR116 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12% |
WR61↓ 1 | 7.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR70 at the median, WR41 - WR94 in the middle half, and WR22 - WR116 in the middle 80%. | |
| 62 | WR | Rashid ShaheedSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR71 at the median, WR40 - WR98 in the middle half, and WR22 - WR121 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12% |
WR62↓ 11 | 7.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR71 at the median, WR40 - WR98 in the middle half, and WR22 - WR121 in the middle 80%. | |
| 63 | WR | Roman WilsonPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR71 at the median, WR42 - WR96 in the middle half, and WR23 - WR119 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 11% |
WR63↑ 6 | 6.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR71 at the median, WR42 - WR96 in the middle half, and WR23 - WR119 in the middle 80%. | |
| 64 | WR | Chris Godwin Jr.TBQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR74 at the median, WR42 - WR105 in the middle half, and WR21 - WR132 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 12% |
WR64↓ 9 | 6.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR74 at the median, WR42 - WR105 in the middle half, and WR21 - WR132 in the middle 80%. | |
| 65 | WR | Brian Thomas Jr.JAXQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR76 at the median, WR41 - WR108 in the middle half, and WR19 - WR135 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 13% |
WR65↓ 18 | 6.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR76 at the median, WR41 - WR108 in the middle half, and WR19 - WR135 in the middle 80%. | |
| 66 | WR | Cooper KuppSEAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR78 at the median, WR43 - WR109 in the middle half, and WR22 - WR135 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 12% |
WR66↑ 4 | 6.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR78 at the median, WR43 - WR109 in the middle half, and WR22 - WR135 in the middle 80%. | |
| 67 | WR | Makai LemonPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR76 at the median, WR47 - WR101 in the middle half, and WR27 - WR124 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% |
WR67↑ 17 | 6.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR76 at the median, WR47 - WR101 in the middle half, and WR27 - WR124 in the middle 80%. | |
| 68 | WR | Caleb DouglasMIAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR82 at the median, WR48 - WR117 in the middle half, and WR23 - WR146 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 11% |
WR68↓ 11 | 6.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR82 at the median, WR48 - WR117 in the middle half, and WR23 - WR146 in the middle 80%. | |
| 69 | WR | DeMario DouglasNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR77 at the median, WR48 - WR103 in the middle half, and WR27 - WR125 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% |
WR69↑ 2 | 6.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR77 at the median, WR48 - WR103 in the middle half, and WR27 - WR125 in the middle 80%. | |
| 70 | WR | Ted Hurst IIITB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR79 at the median, WR48 - WR105 in the middle half, and WR26 - WR129 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% |
WR70↓ 5 | 6.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR79 at the median, WR48 - WR105 in the middle half, and WR26 - WR129 in the middle 80%. | |
| 71 | WR | Lewis BondHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR85 at the median, WR49 - WR117 in the middle half, and WR25 - WR144 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 10% |
WR71NEW | 6.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR85 at the median, WR49 - WR117 in the middle half, and WR25 - WR144 in the middle 80%. | |
| 72 | WR | Travis HunterJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR90 at the median, WR51 - WR123 in the middle half, and WR25 - WR153 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 10% |
WR72↓ 5 | 5.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR90 at the median, WR51 - WR123 in the middle half, and WR25 - WR153 in the middle 80%. | |
| 73 | WR | Chris BellMIAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR81 at the median, WR52 - WR111 in the middle half, and WR29 - WR138 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% |
WR73↑ 31 | 5.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR81 at the median, WR52 - WR111 in the middle half, and WR29 - WR138 in the middle 80%. | |
| 74 | WR | Isaiah WilliamsNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR82 at the median, WR54 - WR109 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR132 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% |
WR74↑ 25 | 5.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR82 at the median, WR54 - WR109 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR132 in the middle 80%. | |
| 75 | WR | Skyler BellBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR88 at the median, WR54 - WR119 in the middle half, and WR28 - WR149 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% |
WR75↑ 39 | 5.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR88 at the median, WR54 - WR119 in the middle half, and WR28 - WR149 in the middle 80%. | |
| 76 | WR | Malachi FieldsNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR84 at the median, WR54 - WR110 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR133 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% |
WR76↓ 8 | 5.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR84 at the median, WR54 - WR110 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR133 in the middle 80%. | |
| 77 | WR | Pat BryantDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR86 at the median, WR56 - WR112 in the middle half, and WR31 - WR137 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% |
WR77↑ 2 | 5.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR86 at the median, WR56 - WR112 in the middle half, and WR31 - WR137 in the middle 80%. | |
| 78 | WR | Skyy MooreGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR85 at the median, WR57 - WR111 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR135 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% |
WR78↑ 41 | 5.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR85 at the median, WR57 - WR111 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR135 in the middle 80%. | |
| 79 | WR | Jared WayneHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR89 at the median, WR60 - WR114 in the middle half, and WR34 - WR138 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% |
WR79↑ 24 | 5.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR89 at the median, WR60 - WR114 in the middle half, and WR34 - WR138 in the middle 80%. | |
| 80 | WR | Jalin HyattNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR59 - WR131 in the middle half, and WR29 - WR160 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% |
WR80↑ 77 | 5.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR59 - WR131 in the middle half, and WR29 - WR160 in the middle 80%. | |
| 81 | WR | Chandler BrayboyNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR61 - WR131 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR158 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 7% |
WR81NEW | 5.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR61 - WR131 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR158 in the middle 80%. | |
| 82 | WR | Cedric TillmanNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR60 - WR133 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR161 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% |
WR82NEW | 5.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR60 - WR133 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR161 in the middle 80%. | |
| 83 | WR | Tim JonesJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR60 - WR133 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR161 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 7% |
WR83NEW | 5.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR60 - WR133 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR161 in the middle 80%. | |
| 84 | WR | Kayshon BoutteHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR92 at the median, WR61 - WR118 in the middle half, and WR33 - WR140 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
WR84↑ 28 | 5.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR92 at the median, WR61 - WR118 in the middle half, and WR33 - WR140 in the middle 80%. | |
| 85 | WR | Kendrick BourneARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR89 at the median, WR61 - WR115 in the middle half, and WR34 - WR137 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
WR85↑ 6 | 5.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR89 at the median, WR61 - WR115 in the middle half, and WR34 - WR137 in the middle 80%. | |
| 86 | WR | Konata MumpfieldLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR92 at the median, WR64 - WR119 in the middle half, and WR36 - WR141 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
WR86↑ 45 | 5.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR92 at the median, WR64 - WR119 in the middle half, and WR36 - WR141 in the middle 80%. | |
| 87 | WR | Darnell MooneyNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR91 at the median, WR62 - WR119 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR141 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
WR87↓ 1 | 5.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR91 at the median, WR62 - WR119 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR141 in the middle 80%. | |
| 88 | WR | Dohnte MeyersCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR93 at the median, WR64 - WR119 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR141 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
WR88↑ 74 | 5.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR93 at the median, WR64 - WR119 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR141 in the middle 80%. | |
| 89 | WR | Isaac TeSlaaDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR65 - WR122 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR144 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
WR89↓ 1 | 5.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR65 - WR122 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR144 in the middle 80%. | |
| 90 | WR | Jalen ReagorMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR101 at the median, WR63 - WR136 in the middle half, and WR33 - WR162 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% |
WR90↓ 41 | 5.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR101 at the median, WR63 - WR136 in the middle half, and WR33 - WR162 in the middle 80%. | |
| 91 | WR | Jalen NailorLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR95 at the median, WR65 - WR122 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR143 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
WR91↓ 14 | 4.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR95 at the median, WR65 - WR122 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR143 in the middle 80%. | |
| 92 | WR | Antonio WilliamsWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR70 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR147 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
WR92↓ 16 | 4.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR70 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR147 in the middle 80%. | |
| 93 | WR | Jordan WatkinsSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR100 at the median, WR67 - WR129 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR155 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 5% |
WR93NEW | 4.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR100 at the median, WR67 - WR129 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR155 in the middle 80%. | |
| 94 | WR | Tyquan ThorntonKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR67 - WR124 in the middle half, and WR36 - WR146 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
WR94↓ 7 | 4.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR67 - WR124 in the middle half, and WR36 - WR146 in the middle 80%. | |
| 95 | WR | Keon ColemanBUFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR101 at the median, WR66 - WR132 in the middle half, and WR34 - WR157 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% |
WR95↓ 21 | 4.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR101 at the median, WR66 - WR132 in the middle half, and WR34 - WR157 in the middle 80%. | |
| 96 | WR | Elic AyomanorTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR98 at the median, WR69 - WR124 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR147 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
WR96↓ 3 | 4.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR98 at the median, WR69 - WR124 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR147 in the middle 80%. | |
| 97 | WR | Elijah SarrattBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR105 at the median, WR68 - WR136 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR163 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
WR97↑ 45 | 4.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR105 at the median, WR68 - WR136 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR163 in the middle 80%. | |
| 98 | WR | Odell Beckham Jr.NYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR104 at the median, WR68 - WR138 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR163 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 5% |
WR98↑ 9 | 4.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR104 at the median, WR68 - WR138 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR163 in the middle 80%. | |
| 99 | WR | Jahan DotsonATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR100 at the median, WR71 - WR126 in the middle half, and WR40 - WR149 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
WR99↓ 14 | 4.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR100 at the median, WR71 - WR126 in the middle half, and WR40 - WR149 in the middle 80%. | |
| 100 | WR | Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR104 at the median, WR71 - WR135 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR160 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
WR100↑ 40 | 4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR104 at the median, WR71 - WR135 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR160 in the middle 80%. | |
| 101 | WR | Jauan JenningsMINQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR106 at the median, WR71 - WR139 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR164 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 5% |
WR101↓ 19 | 4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR106 at the median, WR71 - WR139 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR164 in the middle 80%. | |
| 102 | WR | Jaylin NoelHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR102 at the median, WR71 - WR129 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR150 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
WR102↓ 27 | 4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR102 at the median, WR71 - WR129 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR150 in the middle 80%. | |
| 103 | WR | Chris MooreBALQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR107 at the median, WR70 - WR138 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR163 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
WR103↑ 6 | 4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR107 at the median, WR70 - WR138 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR163 in the middle 80%. | |
| 104 | WR | Jerry JeudyCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR104 at the median, WR74 - WR132 in the middle half, and WR42 - WR155 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
WR104↓ 12 | 4.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR104 at the median, WR74 - WR132 in the middle half, and WR42 - WR155 in the middle 80%. | |
| 105 | WR | Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR106 at the median, WR75 - WR133 in the middle half, and WR43 - WR155 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
WR105↓ 24 | 4.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR106 at the median, WR75 - WR133 in the middle half, and WR43 - WR155 in the middle 80%. | |
| 106 | WR | Josh PalmerBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR107 at the median, WR74 - WR137 in the middle half, and WR42 - WR159 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
WR106↓ 16 | 4.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR107 at the median, WR74 - WR137 in the middle half, and WR42 - WR159 in the middle 80%. | |
| 107 | WR | Dyami BrownWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR104 at the median, WR77 - WR130 in the middle half, and WR44 - WR152 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
WR107↓ 9 | 4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR104 at the median, WR77 - WR130 in the middle half, and WR44 - WR152 in the middle 80%. | |
| 108 | WR | Marquise BrownPHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR114 at the median, WR77 - WR146 in the middle half, and WR41 - WR171 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 4% |
WR108↑ 3 | 4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR114 at the median, WR77 - WR146 in the middle half, and WR41 - WR171 in the middle 80%. | |
| 109 | WR | Devontez WalkerBALQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR111 at the median, WR76 - WR142 in the middle half, and WR41 - WR168 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 4% |
WR109↑ 18 | 4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR111 at the median, WR76 - WR142 in the middle half, and WR41 - WR168 in the middle 80%. | |
| 110 | WR | Brycen TremayneCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR105 at the median, WR75 - WR132 in the middle half, and WR43 - WR153 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% |
WR110NEW | 4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR105 at the median, WR75 - WR132 in the middle half, and WR43 - WR153 in the middle 80%. | |
| 111 | WR | Bryce LanceNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR105 at the median, WR77 - WR130 in the middle half, and WR45 - WR154 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
WR111↑ 4 | 4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR105 at the median, WR77 - WR130 in the middle half, and WR45 - WR154 in the middle 80%. | |
| 112 | WR | Tutu AtwellLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR113 at the median, WR77 - WR144 in the middle half, and WR44 - WR169 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
WR112↑ 5 | 4.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR113 at the median, WR77 - WR144 in the middle half, and WR44 - WR169 in the middle 80%. | |
| 113 | WR | Marvin Mims Jr.DENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR118 at the median, WR82 - WR151 in the middle half, and WR45 - WR176 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
WR113↓ 11 | 3.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR118 at the median, WR82 - WR151 in the middle half, and WR45 - WR176 in the middle 80%. | |
| 114 | WR | Coleman OwenIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR124 at the median, WR84 - WR157 in the middle half, and WR48 - WR179 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
WR114↑ 25 | 3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR124 at the median, WR84 - WR157 in the middle half, and WR48 - WR179 in the middle 80%. | |
| 115 | WR | Jordan WhittingtonLARQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR126 at the median, WR86 - WR160 in the middle half, and WR47 - WR184 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
WR115NEW | 3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR126 at the median, WR86 - WR160 in the middle half, and WR47 - WR184 in the middle 80%. | |
| 116 | WR | Germie BernardPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR118 at the median, WR88 - WR146 in the middle half, and WR50 - WR168 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR116↓ 10 | 3.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR118 at the median, WR88 - WR146 in the middle half, and WR50 - WR168 in the middle 80%. | |
| 117 | WR | Jalen RoyalsKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR119 at the median, WR92 - WR145 in the middle half, and WR53 - WR165 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR117↑ 20 | 3.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR119 at the median, WR92 - WR145 in the middle half, and WR53 - WR165 in the middle 80%. | |
| 118 | WR | Cyrus AllenKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR126 at the median, WR93 - WR154 in the middle half, and WR52 - WR177 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% |
WR118↑ 20 | 3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR126 at the median, WR93 - WR154 in the middle half, and WR52 - WR177 in the middle 80%. | |
| 119 | WR | Cody WhiteLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR123 at the median, WR93 - WR148 in the middle half, and WR51 - WR167 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR119↑ 53 | 3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR123 at the median, WR93 - WR148 in the middle half, and WR51 - WR167 in the middle 80%. | |
| 120 | WR | Sterling ShepardNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR127 at the median, WR91 - WR157 in the middle half, and WR50 - WR180 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
WR120↑ 30 | 3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR127 at the median, WR91 - WR157 in the middle half, and WR50 - WR180 in the middle 80%. | |
| 121 | WR | Tez JohnsonTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR122 at the median, WR92 - WR147 in the middle half, and WR53 - WR168 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR121↑ 4 | 3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR122 at the median, WR92 - WR147 in the middle half, and WR53 - WR168 in the middle 80%. | |
| 122 | WR | Laquon TreadwellIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR123 at the median, WR92 - WR149 in the middle half, and WR52 - WR169 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR122↓ 17 | 3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR123 at the median, WR92 - WR149 in the middle half, and WR52 - WR169 in the middle 80%. | |
| 123 | WR | KaVontae TurpinDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR124 at the median, WR95 - WR149 in the middle half, and WR55 - WR169 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR123↓ 1 | 3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR124 at the median, WR95 - WR149 in the middle half, and WR55 - WR169 in the middle 80%. | |
| 124 | WR | Kyle WilliamsNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR124 at the median, WR94 - WR149 in the middle half, and WR59 - WR169 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR124↓ 11 | 3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR124 at the median, WR94 - WR149 in the middle half, and WR59 - WR169 in the middle 80%. | |
| 125 | WR | Camden BrownDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR127 at the median, WR91 - WR157 in the middle half, and WR56 - WR180 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% |
WR125↑ 39 | 3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR127 at the median, WR91 - WR157 in the middle half, and WR56 - WR180 in the middle 80%. | |
| 126 | WR | Jonathan MingoDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR125 at the median, WR92 - WR154 in the middle half, and WR55 - WR176 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR126NEW | 3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR125 at the median, WR92 - WR154 in the middle half, and WR55 - WR176 in the middle 80%. | |
| 127 | WR | John Metchie IIICAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR126 at the median, WR94 - WR152 in the middle half, and WR55 - WR174 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
WR127NEW | 3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR126 at the median, WR94 - WR152 in the middle half, and WR55 - WR174 in the middle 80%. | |
| 128 | WR | Gary JenningsLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR129 at the median, WR94 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR53 - WR184 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% |
WR128NEW | 3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR129 at the median, WR94 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR53 - WR184 in the middle 80%. | |
| 129 | WR | Olamide ZaccheausATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR125 at the median, WR97 - WR150 in the middle half, and WR56 - WR171 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR129↓ 8 | 3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR125 at the median, WR97 - WR150 in the middle half, and WR56 - WR171 in the middle 80%. | |
| 130 | WR | Zachariah BranchATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR125 at the median, WR96 - WR149 in the middle half, and WR65 - WR168 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR130↑ 5 | 3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR125 at the median, WR96 - WR149 in the middle half, and WR65 - WR168 in the middle 80%. | |
| 131 | WR | Treylon BurksWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR130 at the median, WR98 - WR155 in the middle half, and WR60 - WR175 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR131NEW | 3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR130 at the median, WR98 - WR155 in the middle half, and WR60 - WR175 in the middle 80%. | |
| 132 | WR | Calvin RidleyTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR128 at the median, WR97 - WR155 in the middle half, and WR59 - WR173 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR132↓ 52 | 3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR128 at the median, WR97 - WR155 in the middle half, and WR59 - WR173 in the middle 80%. | |
| 133 | WR | Josh CameronJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR132 at the median, WR103 - WR157 in the middle half, and WR57 - WR176 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR133↑ 30 | 3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR132 at the median, WR103 - WR157 in the middle half, and WR57 - WR176 in the middle 80%. | |
| 134 | WR | Efton Chism IIINE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR131 at the median, WR101 - WR157 in the middle half, and WR65 - WR176 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR134NEW | 3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR131 at the median, WR101 - WR157 in the middle half, and WR65 - WR176 in the middle 80%. | |
| 135 | WR | Ke'Shawn WilliamsCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR137 at the median, WR102 - WR166 in the middle half, and WR62 - WR185 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR135NEW | 2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR137 at the median, WR102 - WR166 in the middle half, and WR62 - WR185 in the middle 80%. | |
| 136 | WR | Troy FranklinDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR131 at the median, WR103 - WR155 in the middle half, and WR66 - WR174 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR136↓ 12 | 2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR131 at the median, WR103 - WR155 in the middle half, and WR66 - WR174 in the middle 80%. | |
| 137 | WR | Tai FeltonMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR139 at the median, WR105 - WR166 in the middle half, and WR63 - WR184 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR137↑ 11 | 2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR139 at the median, WR105 - WR166 in the middle half, and WR63 - WR184 in the middle 80%. | |
| 138 | WR | Tay MartinDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR137 at the median, WR106 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR69 - WR179 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR138NEW | 2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR137 at the median, WR106 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR69 - WR179 in the middle 80%. | |
| 139 | WR | J. Michael SturdivantGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR135 at the median, WR105 - WR164 in the middle half, and WR65 - WR184 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR139↑ 2 | 2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR135 at the median, WR105 - WR164 in the middle half, and WR65 - WR184 in the middle 80%. | |
| 140 | WR | Bryce OliverTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR146 at the median, WR110 - WR174 in the middle half, and WR62 - WR194 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR140↓ 44 | 2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR146 at the median, WR110 - WR174 in the middle half, and WR62 - WR194 in the middle 80%. | |
| 141 | WR | Bub MeansCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR141 at the median, WR106 - WR171 in the middle half, and WR65 - WR191 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
WR141NEW | 2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR141 at the median, WR106 - WR171 in the middle half, and WR65 - WR191 in the middle 80%. | |
| 142 | WR | Van JeffersonWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR143 at the median, WR107 - WR172 in the middle half, and WR65 - WR192 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR142NEW | 2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR143 at the median, WR107 - WR172 in the middle half, and WR65 - WR192 in the middle 80%. | |
| 143 | WR | Tory HortonSEAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR144 at the median, WR110 - WR174 in the middle half, and WR62 - WR194 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 1% |
WR143NEW | 2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR144 at the median, WR110 - WR174 in the middle half, and WR62 - WR194 in the middle 80%. | |
| 144 | WR | Anthony SmithDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR144 at the median, WR108 - WR173 in the middle half, and WR63 - WR194 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR144NEW | 2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR144 at the median, WR108 - WR173 in the middle half, and WR63 - WR194 in the middle 80%. | |
| 145 | WR | Ryan MillerMIAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR143 at the median, WR109 - WR169 in the middle half, and WR71 - WR188 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR145↑ 20 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR143 at the median, WR109 - WR169 in the middle half, and WR71 - WR188 in the middle 80%. | |
| 146 | WR | Xavier RestrepoTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR147 at the median, WR110 - WR177 in the middle half, and WR65 - WR195 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR146↑ 14 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR147 at the median, WR110 - WR177 in the middle half, and WR65 - WR195 in the middle 80%. | |
| 147 | WR | Ronnie BellLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR146 at the median, WR111 - WR175 in the middle half, and WR71 - WR193 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR147↓ 52 | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR146 at the median, WR111 - WR175 in the middle half, and WR71 - WR193 in the middle 80%. | |
| 148 | WR | Ricky White IIISEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR148 at the median, WR112 - WR176 in the middle half, and WR72 - WR194 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR148↓ 5 | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR148 at the median, WR112 - WR176 in the middle half, and WR72 - WR194 in the middle 80%. | |
| 149 | WR | Elijah MoorePHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR155 at the median, WR121 - WR182 in the middle half, and WR78 - WR199 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR149NEW | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR155 at the median, WR121 - WR182 in the middle half, and WR78 - WR199 in the middle 80%. | |
| 150 | WR | Jacob CowingSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR148 at the median, WR120 - WR171 in the middle half, and WR84 - WR187 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
WR150↓ 4 | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR148 at the median, WR120 - WR171 in the middle half, and WR84 - WR187 in the middle 80%. | |
| 151 | WR | Trey PalmerNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR125 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR81 - WR200 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR151NEW | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR125 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR81 - WR200 in the middle 80%. | |
| 152 | WR | Tyler JohnsonNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR123 - WR184 in the middle half, and WR81 - WR200 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR152↓ 5 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR123 - WR184 in the middle half, and WR81 - WR200 in the middle 80%. | |
| 153 | WR | Dylan DrummondATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR158 at the median, WR124 - WR184 in the middle half, and WR82 - WR200 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR153↓ 8 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR158 at the median, WR124 - WR184 in the middle half, and WR82 - WR200 in the middle 80%. | |
| 154 | WR | Brandon JohnsonPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR124 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR81 - WR200 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR154↑ 7 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR124 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR81 - WR200 in the middle 80%. | |
| 155 | WR | Michael BandyDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR158 at the median, WR125 - WR184 in the middle half, and WR81 - WR199 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR155↓ 77 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR158 at the median, WR125 - WR184 in the middle half, and WR81 - WR199 in the middle 80%. | |
| 156 | WR | Deion BurksIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR156 at the median, WR124 - WR182 in the middle half, and WR86 - WR197 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
WR156NEW | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR156 at the median, WR124 - WR182 in the middle half, and WR86 - WR197 in the middle 80%. | |
| 157 | WR | Danny GrayPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR124 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR85 - WR200 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
WR157↑ 14 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR124 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR85 - WR200 in the middle 80%. | |
| 158 | WR | Cedrick Wilson Jr.MIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR158 at the median, WR125 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR85 - WR200 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR158↓ 69 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR158 at the median, WR125 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR85 - WR200 in the middle 80%. | |
| 159 | WR | Alex BachmanLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR160 at the median, WR126 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR85 - WR200 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR159↓ 10 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR160 at the median, WR126 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR85 - WR200 in the middle 80%. | |
| 160 | WR | Ashton DulinINDQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR161 at the median, WR127 - WR187 in the middle half, and WR86 - WR202 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR160NEW | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR161 at the median, WR127 - WR187 in the middle half, and WR86 - WR202 in the middle 80%. | |
| 161 | WR | Brandon SmithPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR125 - WR184 in the middle half, and WR85 - WR200 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR161↓ 10 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR125 - WR184 in the middle half, and WR85 - WR200 in the middle 80%. | |
| 162 | WR | Deven ThompkinsLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR158 at the median, WR126 - WR184 in the middle half, and WR85 - WR200 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR162↓ 10 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR158 at the median, WR126 - WR184 in the middle half, and WR85 - WR200 in the middle 80%. | |
| 163 | WR | K.J. OsbornTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR158 at the median, WR125 - WR184 in the middle half, and WR81 - WR200 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR163↑ 10 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR158 at the median, WR125 - WR184 in the middle half, and WR81 - WR200 in the middle 80%. | |
| 164 | WR | Theo Wease Jr.LAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR158 at the median, WR125 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR85 - WR200 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR164NEW | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR158 at the median, WR125 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR85 - WR200 in the middle 80%. | |
| 165 | WR | Malik BensonLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR153 at the median, WR128 - WR174 in the middle half, and WR98 - WR189 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
WR165↓ 33 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR153 at the median, WR128 - WR174 in the middle half, and WR98 - WR189 in the middle 80%. | |
| 166 | WR | Xavier GipsonPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR125 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR85 - WR200 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR166↓ 22 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR125 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR85 - WR200 in the middle 80%. | |
| 167 | WR | Casey WashingtonCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR124 - WR184 in the middle half, and WR82 - WR200 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR167NEW | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR124 - WR184 in the middle half, and WR82 - WR200 in the middle 80%. | |
| 168 | WR | Austin TrammellJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR125 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR84 - WR199 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR168↑ 8 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR125 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR84 - WR199 in the middle 80%. | |
| 169 | WR | Isaiah NeyorGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR158 at the median, WR124 - WR184 in the middle half, and WR87 - WR199 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR169↓ 11 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR158 at the median, WR124 - WR184 in the middle half, and WR87 - WR199 in the middle 80%. | |
| 170 | WR | Gage LarvadainBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR125 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR84 - WR200 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR170NEW | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR125 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR84 - WR200 in the middle 80%. | |
| 171 | WR | Dominic LovettDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR125 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR86 - WR200 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
WR171↓ 77 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR125 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR86 - WR200 in the middle 80%. | |
| 172 | WR | Charlie JonesNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR158 at the median, WR128 - WR182 in the middle half, and WR93 - WR197 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
WR172↓ 13 | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR158 at the median, WR128 - WR182 in the middle half, and WR93 - WR197 in the middle 80%. | |
| 173 | WR | Darius CooperPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR160 at the median, WR134 - WR180 in the middle half, and WR99 - WR194 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
WR173↓ 44 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR160 at the median, WR134 - WR180 in the middle half, and WR99 - WR194 in the middle 80%. | |
| 174 | WR | Jahdae WalkerCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR164 at the median, WR135 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR98 - WR199 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
WR174↓ 51 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR164 at the median, WR135 - WR185 in the middle half, and WR98 - WR199 in the middle 80%. | |
| 175 | WR | LaJohntay WesterBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR134 - WR179 in the middle half, and WR103 - WR193 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
WR175↓ 42 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR134 - WR179 in the middle half, and WR103 - WR193 in the middle 80%. | |
| 176 | WR | Kaden DavisCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR170 at the median, WR139 - WR191 in the middle half, and WR103 - WR203 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
WR176NEW | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR170 at the median, WR139 - WR191 in the middle half, and WR103 - WR203 in the middle 80%. | |
| 177 | WR | Jamaal PritchettNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR168 at the median, WR142 - WR189 in the middle half, and WR108 - WR202 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
WR177NEW | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR168 at the median, WR142 - WR189 in the middle half, and WR108 - WR202 in the middle 80%. | |
| 178 | WR | CJ DanielsLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR170 at the median, WR140 - WR191 in the middle half, and WR105 - WR203 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
WR178↓ 4 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR170 at the median, WR140 - WR191 in the middle half, and WR105 - WR203 in the middle 80%. |
Simulated finishes
This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.
Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.
Week 4 WR outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.
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WR14Jaxon Smith-Njigba is ranked WR1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR14 at the median, WR5 - WR29 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR51 in the middle 80%.
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WR2 Chris OlaveWR17Chris Olave is ranked WR2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR17 at the median, WR6 - WR39 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR65 in the middle 80%.
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WR16Amon-Ra St. Brown is ranked WR3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR16 at the median, WR6 - WR35 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR58 in the middle 80%.
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WR4 Ja'Marr ChaseWR18Ja'Marr Chase is ranked WR4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR18 at the median, WR7 - WR38 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR60 in the middle 80%.
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WR5 Puka NacuaWR22Puka Nacua is ranked WR5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR22 at the median, WR8 - WR51 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR79 in the middle 80%.
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WR6 Garrett WilsonWR20Garrett Wilson is ranked WR6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR20 at the median, WR9 - WR40 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR63 in the middle 80%.
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WR7 CeeDee LambWR21CeeDee Lamb is ranked WR7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR21 at the median, WR8 - WR43 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR66 in the middle 80%.
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WR8 Drake LondonWR22Drake London is ranked WR8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR22 at the median, WR9 - WR43 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR65 in the middle 80%.
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WR9 Davante AdamsWR24Davante Adams is ranked WR9 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR10 - WR47 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR69 in the middle 80%.
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WR10 Nico CollinsWR29Nico Collins is ranked WR10 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR10 - WR61 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR91 in the middle 80%.
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WR11 DeVonta SmithWR28DeVonta Smith is ranked WR11 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR28 at the median, WR10 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR81 in the middle 80%.
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WR12 Zay FlowersWR29Zay Flowers is ranked WR12 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR11 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR85 in the middle 80%.
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WR13 Parker WashingtonWR26Parker Washington is ranked WR13 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR26 at the median, WR11 - WR50 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR72 in the middle 80%.
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WR14 Christian WatsonWR27Christian Watson is ranked WR14 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR27 at the median, WR12 - WR51 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR72 in the middle 80%.
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WR15 Justin JeffersonWR32Justin Jefferson is ranked WR15 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR32 at the median, WR12 - WR61 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR86 in the middle 80%.
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WR16 George PickensWR29George Pickens is ranked WR16 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR13 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR76 in the middle 80%.
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WR17 Michael WilsonWR29Michael Wilson is ranked WR17 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR13 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR75 in the middle 80%.
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WR18 Tetairoa McMillanWR31Tetairoa McMillan is ranked WR18 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR31 at the median, WR14 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR75 in the middle 80%.
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WR19 Josh DownsWR30Josh Downs is ranked WR19 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR30 at the median, WR14 - WR56 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR77 in the middle 80%.
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WR20 Rashee RiceWR30Rashee Rice is ranked WR20 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR30 at the median, WR14 - WR57 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR78 in the middle 80%.
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WR21 Tee HigginsWR31Tee Higgins is ranked WR21 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR31 at the median, WR15 - WR57 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR78 in the middle 80%.
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WR22 Matthew GoldenWR33Matthew Golden is ranked WR22 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR33 at the median, WR15 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR79 in the middle 80%.
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WR23 Luther Burden IIIWR35Luther Burden III is ranked WR23 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR35 at the median, WR17 - WR62 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR83 in the middle 80%.
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WR24 Terry McLaurinWR36Terry McLaurin is ranked WR24 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR36 at the median, WR17 - WR64 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR86 in the middle 80%.
Show WR25 - WR36
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WR25 Jaylen WaddleWR40Jaylen Waddle is ranked WR25 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR40 at the median, WR18 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR94 in the middle 80%.
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WR26 Malik NabersWR40Malik Nabers is ranked WR26 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR40 at the median, WR17 - WR71 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR95 in the middle 80%.
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WR27 Jalen CokerWR40Jalen Coker is ranked WR27 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR40 at the median, WR18 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR96 in the middle 80%.
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WR28 DJ MooreWR42DJ Moore is ranked WR28 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR42 at the median, WR19 - WR72 in the middle half, and WR8 - WR96 in the middle 80%.
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WR29 Mike EvansWR42Mike Evans is ranked WR29 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR42 at the median, WR18 - WR73 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR98 in the middle 80%.
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WR30 Stefon DiggsWR41Stefon Diggs is ranked WR30 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR41 at the median, WR20 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR88 in the middle 80%.
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WR31 Devaughn VeleWR42Devaughn Vele is ranked WR31 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR42 at the median, WR22 - WR70 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR92 in the middle 80%.
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WR32 Ladd McConkeyWR47Ladd McConkey is ranked WR32 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR21 - WR76 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR100 in the middle 80%.
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WR33 Carnell TateWR45Carnell Tate is ranked WR33 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR22 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR91 in the middle 80%.
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WR34 Malik WashingtonWR45Malik Washington is ranked WR34 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR24 - WR71 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR93 in the middle 80%.
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WR35 Emeka EgbukaWR47Emeka Egbuka is ranked WR35 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR23 - WR73 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR94 in the middle 80%.
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WR36 DK MetcalfWR46DK Metcalf is ranked WR36 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR23 - WR73 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR95 in the middle 80%.
Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.
The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.
How these are made
This board was built from 2026 usage for 72% of the board, draft position for 100%, an outside projection for 59%, sportsbook props for 69%, an official status for 82%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Full PPR, 1QB.
Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured October 1, 2026 20:23 UTC. Movement is previous - current; positive means the player moved up the board (a smaller rank number), measured in positional rank against the final Week 3 board generated before that week's first kickoff (September 24, 2026). Model rankings-v1.4.1, board captured 2026-10-01.
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
