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WR

KC · Bye 5

Rashee Rice

LMD WR17 for Week 4 · 13.4 projected Full PPR points · WR21 rest of season

Regular season

Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 13.4 points this week, WR17. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 24% · Top 24: 45% of simulated weeks. Up 8 since Week 3.

Week 4

WR17

64th by projected points

Rest of season

WR21

41st by projected points

Projected

13.4

week 4, Full PPR

Top 12

24%

Top 3: 6% · Top 24: 45% at WR

Movement

↑ 8

WR25 in Week 3, WR17 now

Should you start Rashee Rice in Week 4?

Start

Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Rashee Rice WR17 for Week 4, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 45% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All WR rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Rashee Rice by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 3 completed games Rashee Rice has averaged +1.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Rashee Rice, Full PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs DEN 12.5 9.9 -2.6
Wk 2 vs IND 10.2 12.3 +2.1
Wk 3 @ MIA 11.7 15.8 +4.1
Wk 4 @ LV 13.4 Pending —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Draft Return

How he compares with his draft price

The draft market had him at WR9. For the rest of the season LMD has him 12 spots lower, at WR21.

Preseason market: WR9 · ADP 17.2

Season to date

Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.

Rest of season

WR21 −12

LMD has him 12 spots lower than his WR9 draft price.

Week 4

WR17 −8

LMD has him 8 spots lower than his WR9 draft price.

Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026

Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.

WR9 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.

ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 180.7 points this season, WR21. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 19% · Top 24: 64% of simulated seasons. That is 13.4 a game over 14 remaining games.

Per game

13.4 / game

Over 14 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 19% · Top 24: 64%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR

Market input

broad

Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Rashee Rice #108 in 1QB and #111 in Superflex, WR43 at his position. Age 26.

1QB

#108

WR43 · tier 25 · of 297

Superflex

#111

WR43 · tier 20 · of 303

  • Last season 123.6 pts 15.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 49% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 8.7 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 26% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

3.04

pick 28.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

3.05

half of simulations take him by pick 29

Draft range

2.04 - 4.03

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in every one

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams also published: 10 teams, 8 teams
Scoring Full PPR also published: Half PPR, Standard
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 3.05 in 53% of simulations

Pick 29 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 4.08, where he is available in 2% of simulations.

Slot 5's remaining turns: 3.05 53% · 4.08 2% · 5.05 0%

The middle half of simulations take him between 2.11 and 3.10.

Rashee Rice still on the board
PickAvailable
3.03 62%
3.04 57%
3.05 53%
3.06 49%
3.07 44%
3.08 39%
3.09 34%
3.10 30%
3.11 25%
3.12 21%
4.01 17%
4.02 14%
4.03 11%
4.04 8%
4.05 6%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Rashee Rice was selected at each pick, 2.04 through 4.03. He goes earlier than this window in 10%, later in 8%.
Draft position distribution for Rashee Rice
PickShare of simulationsCount
2.041%144 of 10000 simulations
2.052%193 of 10000 simulations
2.062%162 of 10000 simulations
2.072%181 of 10000 simulations
2.082%181 of 10000 simulations
2.092%217 of 10000 simulations
2.103%272 of 10000 simulations
2.113%303 of 10000 simulations
2.124%374 of 10000 simulations
3.014%374 of 10000 simulations
3.024%425 of 10000 simulations
3.035%476 of 10000 simulations
3.044%396 of 10000 simulations
3.055%460 of 10000 simulations
3.065%473 of 10000 simulations
3.075%487 of 10000 simulations
3.085%479 of 10000 simulations
3.095%474 of 10000 simulations
3.105%456 of 10000 simulations
3.114%443 of 10000 simulations
3.123%349 of 10000 simulations
4.013%315 of 10000 simulations
4.023%315 of 10000 simulations
4.032%239 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Rashee Rice was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Rashee Rice was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
October 1, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Full PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.