PHI · Bye 10
DeVonta Smith
LMD WR11 rest of season · 207.8 projected Full PPR points
Out this week
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 207.8 points this season, WR11. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 49% · Top 24: 85% of simulated seasons. That is 16.1 a game over 13 remaining games. Ruled out this week, so this projection is for the games after it.
Rest of season
WR11
21st by projected points
Projected
207.8
rest of season, Full PPR
Top 12
49%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 85% at WR
Movement
—
Unchanged: WR11 on Oct. 1
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Makai Lemon can shed early bust label with Eagles amid DeVonta Smith injury
fansided.com ·
-
Report: Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (hamstring) to miss multiple games
Reuters ·
-
Eagles WR Devonta Smith To Miss Multiple Games
yardbarker.com ·
-
Eagles get concerning multi-week DeVonta Smith injury update
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Eagles WR DeVonta Smith out with hamstring injury vs Rams
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to DeVonta Smith by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games DeVonta Smith has averaged +3.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs WAS | 12.9 | 8.3 | -4.6 |
| Wk 2 | @ TEN | 10.6 | 27.7 | +17.1 |
| Wk 3 | @ CHI | 14.8 | 12.5 | -2.3 |
| Wk 4 | vs LAR | 14.9 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR16. For the rest of the season LMD has him 5 spots higher, at WR11.
Preseason market: WR16 · ADP 29.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR11 +5
LMD has him 5 spots higher than his WR16 draft price.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR16 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 207.8 points this season, WR11. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 49% · Top 24: 85% of simulated seasons. That is 16.1 a game over 13 remaining games. Ruled out this week, so this projection is for the games after it.
Per game
16.1 / game
Over 13 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 49% · Top 24: 85%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has DeVonta Smith #57 in 1QB and #64 in Superflex, WR19 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#57
WR19 · tier 16 · of 297
Superflex
#64
WR19 · tier 13 · of 303
- Last season 163.3 pts 9.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 25% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.09
pick 33.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.10
half of simulations take him by pick 34
Draft range
2.09 - 4.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.10 in 54% of simulations
Pick 34 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 4.03, where he is available in 30% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 3.10 54% · 4.03 30% · 5.10 <1% · 6.03 <1% · 7.10 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.04 and 4.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.08 | 63% |
| 3.09 | 58% |
| 3.10 | 54% |
| 3.11 | 49% |
| 3.12 | 44% |
| 4.01 | 40% |
| 4.02 | 35% |
| 4.03 | 30% |
| 4.04 | 26% |
| 4.05 | 21% |
| 4.06 | 18% |
| 4.07 | 14% |
| 4.08 | 12% |
| 4.09 | 9% |
| 4.10 | 7% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.09 | 1% | 137 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10 | 1% | 143 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11 | 2% | 198 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 2% | 212 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 2% | 228 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 3% | 259 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 3% | 275 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 3% | 300 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 3% | 341 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 3% | 317 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 3% | 348 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 5% | 456 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 5% | 462 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 4% | 425 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 3% | 349 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 3% | 329 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 3% | 298 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 2% | 243 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which DeVonta Smith was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 4%
- Tee Higgins WR · CIN 4%
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 4%
Usually taken just after
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 4%
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
- Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 4%
- Tee Higgins WR · CIN 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
DeVonta Smith was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.