LAC · Bye 7
Ladd McConkey
LMD WR56 for Week 4 · 7.8 projected Full PPR points · WR33 rest of season
Questionable · projection includes a 71% chance of playing
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.8 points this week, WR56. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 10% · Top 24: 22% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable (Foot). The projection and the Top 3, 12 and 24 odds include a 71% chance he plays; the weeks he sits count as zero. Down 29 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR56
142nd by projected points
Rest of season
WR33
64th by projected points
Projected
7.8
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
10%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 22% at WR
Movement
↓ 29
WR27 in Week 3, WR56 now
Should you start Ladd McConkey in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Ladd McConkey WR56 for Week 4, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 22% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
WR56 vs WR21 -35
LMD has him WR56. The fantasy draft market has him WR21, 35 places higher.
Our projection is lower than the outside forecast and sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.53 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.42 pts
- AvailabilityQuestionable
- Strong negative-3.21 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.13 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.25 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Chargers Injury Report: Ladd McConkey, Derwin James questionable vs. Seahawks
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Chargers list Derwin James, Ladd McConkey, Trey Lance as questionable
NBC Sports ·
-
Week 4 Top Fantasy Football Must-Sits At Every Position: Leave Ollie Gordon And Ladd McConkey On Your Bench
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey misses practice because of foot injury
bdtonline.com ·
-
Chargers news: Ladd McConkey, Derwin James injury updates before Seahawks game
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Ladd McConkey by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Ladd McConkey has averaged +2.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ARI | 10.5 | 19.2 | +8.7 |
| Wk 2 | vs LV | 6.6 | 6.5 | -0.1 |
| Wk 3 | @ BUF | 11.8 | 10.6 | -1.2 |
| Wk 4 | @ SEA | 7.8 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR20. For the rest of the season LMD has him 13 spots lower, at WR33.
Preseason market: WR20 · ADP 38.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR33 −13
LMD has him 13 spots lower than his WR20 draft price.
Week 4
WR56 −36
LMD has him 36 spots lower than his WR20 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR20 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 147.4 points this season, WR33. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 20% of simulated seasons. That is 11.1 a game over 13.707 remaining games. Listed questionable (Foot). The projection and the Top 3, 12 and 24 odds include a 71% chance he plays; the weeks he sits count as zero.
Per game
11.1 / game
Over 13.707 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 20%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Ladd McConkey #47 in 1QB and #57 in Superflex, WR15 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#47
WR15 · tier 14 · of 297
Superflex
#57
WR15 · tier 11 · of 303
- Last season 147.9 pts 9.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 94% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 22% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.03
pick 38.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.03
half of simulations take him by pick 39
Draft range
3.02 - 5.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.03 in 55% of simulations
Pick 39 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 5.10, where he is available in 1% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 4.03 55% · 5.10 1% · 6.03 <1% · 7.10 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.09 and 4.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.01 | 63% |
| 4.02 | 59% |
| 4.03 | 55% |
| 4.04 | 50% |
| 4.05 | 45% |
| 4.06 | 40% |
| 4.07 | 36% |
| 4.08 | 32% |
| 4.09 | 27% |
| 4.10 | 23% |
| 4.11 | 19% |
| 4.12 | 16% |
| 5.01 | 13% |
| 5.02 | 10% |
| 5.03 | 8% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.02-3.03 | 3% | 319 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04-3.05 | 4% | 372 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06-3.07 | 4% | 421 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08-3.09 | 5% | 537 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10-3.11 | 7% | 685 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12-4.01 | 8% | 826 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02-4.03 | 9% | 920 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04-4.05 | 10% | 958 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06-4.07 | 9% | 881 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08-4.09 | 9% | 857 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10-4.11 | 7% | 720 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12-5.01 | 5% | 546 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02 | 2% | 207 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Ladd McConkey was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 4%
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 4%
- Tee Higgins WR · CIN 3%
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 3%
Usually taken just after
- Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 4%
- Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 4%
- Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 3%
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Ladd McConkey was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.