MIN · Bye 6

Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson comes off the board at 2.02 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 2.03.

12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulated ADP

2.02

pick 14.1 overall, on average

Median pick

2.03

half of simulations take him by pick 15

Draft range

1.05 - 2.10

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in every one

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams also published: 10 teams, 8 teams

Scoring Full PPR also published: Half PPR, Standard

QB format 1QB also published: Superflex

Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 2.03 in 51% of simulations

Pick 15 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 3.10, where he is available in <1% of simulations.

Slot 10's remaining turns: 2.03 51% · 3.10 <1% · 4.03 0%

The middle half of simulations take him between 1.10 and 2.07.

Justin Jefferson still on the board
Pick	Available
2.01	63%
2.02	57%
2.03	51%
2.04	45%
2.05	38%
2.06	32%
2.07	26%
2.08	21%
2.09	16%
2.10	12%
2.11	9%
2.12	6%
3.01	4%
3.02	3%
3.03	2%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Justin Jefferson was selected at each pick, 1.05 through 2.10. He goes earlier than this window in 10%, later in 9%.

Draft position distribution for Justin Jefferson
Pick	Share of simulations	Count
1.05	3%	283 of 10000 simulations
1.06	3%	293 of 10000 simulations
1.07	3%	270 of 10000 simulations
1.08	3%	311 of 10000 simulations
1.09	3%	326 of 10000 simulations
1.10	4%	387 of 10000 simulations
1.11	4%	407 of 10000 simulations
1.12	4%	430 of 10000 simulations
2.01	6%	603 of 10000 simulations
2.02	6%	622 of 10000 simulations
2.03	6%	591 of 10000 simulations
2.04	6%	647 of 10000 simulations
2.05	6%	605 of 10000 simulations
2.06	6%	591 of 10000 simulations
2.07	5%	534 of 10000 simulations
2.08	5%	482 of 10000 simulations
2.09	4%	385 of 10000 simulations
2.10	3%	343 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Justin Jefferson was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 5%
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 5%
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 5%
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 4%

Usually taken just after

CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 5%
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 5%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 4%
De'Von Achane RB · MIA 4%

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.

Justin Jefferson was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.

We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.

Simulation model: simulation-v1.1
Generated: August 20, 2026
Player dataset: sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
Baseline: rank

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