ARI · Bye 14
Michael Wilson
LMD WR15 for Week 4 · 13.6 projected Full PPR points · WR17 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 13.6 points this week, WR15. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 45% of simulated weeks. Up 31 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR15
61st by projected points
Rest of season
WR17
34th by projected points
Projected
13.6
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
25%
Top 3: 6% · Top 24: 45% at WR
Movement
↑ 31
WR46 in Week 3, WR15 now
Should you start Michael Wilson in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Michael Wilson WR15 for Week 4, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 45% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.92 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.72 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.04 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.95 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Week 4 WR/TE Target Report: Michael Wilson Gets a Fantasy Football Value Boost While Kyle Pitts Becomes Droppable
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (NYSE:RGR) VP Michael Wilson Sells 600 Shares of Company Stock
baseballnewssource.com ·
-
Michael Wilson with big day
USA TODAY ·
-
Cardinals' Jacoby Brissett throws Michael Wilson under bus in defense of Marvin Harrison Jr.
CBS Sports ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Michael Wilson's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 72.9 to 75.8 over the last 7 days.
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Michael Wilson by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Michael Wilson has averaged +5.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LAC | 7.7 | 10.6 | +2.9 |
| Wk 2 | vs SEA | 6.6 | 3.8 | -2.8 |
| Wk 3 | @ SF | 9.8 | 25.9 | +16.1 |
| Wk 4 | @ NYG | 13.6 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR36. For the rest of the season LMD has him 19 spots higher, at WR17.
Preseason market: WR36 · ADP 76.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR17 +19
LMD has him 19 spots higher than his WR36 draft price.
Week 4
WR15 +21
LMD has him 21 spots higher than his WR36 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR36 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 190.1 points this season, WR17. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 29% · Top 24: 74% of simulated seasons. That is 13.1 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
13.1 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 29% · Top 24: 74%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Michael Wilson #84 in 1QB and #86 in Superflex, WR31 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#84
WR31 · tier 20 · of 297
Superflex
#86
WR31 · tier 16 · of 303
- Last season 181.6 pts 10.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 94% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.04
pick 88.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.03
half of simulations take him by pick 87
Draft range
6.11 - 9.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.03 in 53% of simulations
Pick 87 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 9.10, where he is available in 10% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 8.03 53% · 9.10 10% · 10.03 5% · 11.10 <1% · 12.03 <1% · 13.10 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.06 and 9.01.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.01 | 58% |
| 8.02 | 56% |
| 8.03 | 53% |
| 8.04 | 50% |
| 8.05 | 46% |
| 8.06 | 43% |
| 8.07 | 41% |
| 8.08 | 38% |
| 8.09 | 36% |
| 8.10 | 33% |
| 8.11 | 31% |
| 8.12 | 29% |
| 9.01 | 26% |
| 9.02 | 24% |
| 9.03 | 22% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.11-6.12 | 4% | 409 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03-7.04 | 4% | 426 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 4% | 445 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 5% | 493 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 5% | 548 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 5% | 547 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 6% | 563 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 6% | 610 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 6% | 580 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 5% | 500 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 5% | 485 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 4% | 445 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 5% | 453 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 4% | 424 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 3% | 326 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 3% | 282 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 2% | 243 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Michael Wilson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 3%
- Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 2%
- DK Metcalf WR · PIT 2%
- Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 2%
- Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 2%
- DK Metcalf WR · PIT 2%
- Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Michael Wilson was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.