DAL · Bye 14
George Pickens
LMD WR14 for Week 4 · 13.6 projected Full PPR points · WR16 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 13.6 points this week, WR14. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 24% · Top 24: 45% of simulated weeks. Up 4 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR14
60th by projected points
Rest of season
WR16
32nd by projected points
Projected
13.6
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
24%
Top 3: 6% · Top 24: 45% at WR
Movement
↑ 4
WR18 in Week 3, WR14 now
Should you start George Pickens in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks George Pickens WR14 for Week 4, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 45% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.08 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.18 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.01 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.20 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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Jerry Jones reportedly views Joey Porter Jr. trade in similar light to George Pickens deal
Sporting News ·
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12 NFL players who could be trade targets, including T.J. Watt and George Pickens
auburnpub.com ·
-
Cowboys could face a franchise-tag dilemma between George Pickens, Joey Porter Jr.
NBC Sports ·
-
13 NFL players who could be trade targets, including T.J. Watt and George Pickens
USA TODAY ·
-
Dallas Cowboys WR George Pickens reacts during the game against the Baltimore Ravens.
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to George Pickens by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games George Pickens has averaged -2.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ NYG | 12.8 | 5.8 | -7.0 |
| Wk 2 | vs WAS | 11.7 | 10.0 | -1.7 |
| Wk 3 | vs BAL | 12.5 | 15.2 | +2.7 |
| Wk 4 | @ HOU | 13.6 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR12. For the rest of the season LMD has him 4 spots lower, at WR16.
Preseason market: WR12 · ADP 20.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR16 −4
LMD has him 4 spots lower than his WR12 draft price.
Week 4
WR14 −2
LMD has him 2 spots lower than his WR12 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR12 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 191.7 points this season, WR16. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 30% · Top 24: 76% of simulated seasons. That is 13.6 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
13.6 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 30% · Top 24: 76%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has George Pickens #20 in 1QB and #27 in Superflex, WR6 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#20
WR6 · tier 8 · of 297
Superflex
#27
WR6 · tier 7 · of 303
- Last season 245.4 pts 14.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 95% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 24% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.01
pick 24.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.01
half of simulations take him by pick 25
Draft range
2.01 - 3.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.01 in 54% of simulations
Pick 25 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 4.12, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 3.01 54% · 4.12 <1% · 5.01 <1% · 6.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.07 and 3.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 2.11 | 64% |
| 2.12 | 59% |
| 3.01 | 54% |
| 3.02 | 49% |
| 3.03 | 43% |
| 3.04 | 38% |
| 3.05 | 34% |
| 3.06 | 29% |
| 3.07 | 25% |
| 3.08 | 21% |
| 3.09 | 17% |
| 3.10 | 13% |
| 3.11 | 10% |
| 3.12 | 8% |
| 4.01 | 6% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.01 | 2% | 228 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.02 | 2% | 243 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.03 | 2% | 246 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.04 | 2% | 242 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.05 | 2% | 237 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.06 | 2% | 238 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.07 | 3% | 261 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.08 | 3% | 264 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.09 | 3% | 303 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10 | 4% | 440 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11 | 5% | 487 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 6% | 574 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 5% | 482 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 5% | 545 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 4% | 442 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 5% | 469 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 4% | 422 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 4% | 431 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 4% | 386 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 4% | 357 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 3% | 297 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 2% | 249 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which George Pickens was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 4%
- Nico Collins WR · HOU 4%
- Jeremiyah Love RB · ARI 4%
- Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 4%
Usually taken just after
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 5%
- Jeremiyah Love RB · ARI 5%
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
- Nico Collins WR · HOU 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
George Pickens was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.